Kill the “fiscal cliff” instead of the Economy

Everyone now agrees that the so-called “fiscal cliff” is a stupid policy that threatens our economy and our people.  Everyone agrees why the “fiscal cliff” is stupid – it inflicts austerity at a time when it is likely to throw the nation into a gratuitous recession.  Causing a recession leads to increased unemployment and a […]

Forecasting Economic Activity…Just Slightly

Last week’s update of the Capital Spectator Recession Risk Index (CSRRI)—a simple but revealing diffusion index based on a broad spectrum of economic and financial indicators—suggested that the probability was low that July will mark the start of a new recession. A broad review of recent history can reveal quite a lot about the business cycle, but […]