Will Macroeconomists Ever Agree?

Kevin Drum wonders if macroeconomists will ever be able to agree: The part I can’t figure out is why there’s so much contention even withinthe field. In physics and climate science, the cranks are almost all nonspecialists with an axe to grind. Actual practitioners agree pretty broadly on at least the basics. But in macroeconomics you don’t have […]

Forecasting Economic Activity…Just Slightly

Last week’s update of the Capital Spectator Recession Risk Index (CSRRI)—a simple but revealing diffusion index based on a broad spectrum of economic and financial indicators—suggested that the probability was low that July will mark the start of a new recession. A broad review of recent history can reveal quite a lot about the business cycle, but […]