Consequences of the World Oil Glut

Forecasting crude oil prices has been difficult. Forecast errors have been large, especially for the end of 2014, when typical forecasts were more than $40 per barrel too high. A panel of Wall Street Journal analysts forecast $94.65 per barrel, but the actual price was $53.27 per barrel. Forecasts implicit in oil futures contracts exhibited […]

Global Growth: The Slow Recovery Continues

By Olivier Blanchard: The recovery continues, but it remains weak, indeed a bit weaker than we forecast in April. We have revised our forecast for world growth in 2014 from 3.7 percent in April to 3.4 percent today. This headline number makes things look worse than they really are. To a large extent, it reflects something that has […]

Oil Production Numbers Keep Going Down

By Dave Summers: One problem with defining a peak in global oil production is that it is only really evident sometime after the event, when one can look in the rear view mirror and see the transition from a growing oil supply to one that is now declining. Before that relatively absolute point, there will […]

The Dirty Truth About Clean Energy

By Chris Dalby: Media coverage of the energy industry often makes the players seem like the cast of a Hollywood Western. Coal and oil companies are the bad guys, ruining the environment and abusing the villagers for a quick buck. They are winning until wind and solar developers ride into town like the cavalry, their […]

Fixing International Corporate Taxation—Not Just a Problem for Advanced Economies

By Michael Keen: It’s hard to pick up a newspaper these days (or, more likely for readers of blogs, to skim one online) without finding another story about some multinational corporation managing, as if by magic, to pay little corporate tax. What lets them do this, of course, are the tax rules that countries themselves set. A […]

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