There are dynamics emerging in the Developed Economies that suggest the large-scale bifurcation between wage earners and white-collar workers that has emerged in the last thirty years may have gone too far and the return to a more normalized distribution of compensation in the cards. Unfortunately we don’t think this helps the US and European […]
It seems appropriate to start off our new home at EconoMonitor with a post rapture “tip of the hat” to the weekend that was (or was not). As we sit pondering another bout with the East Coast deluge of rain, we are wondering if the Arc metaphors of last week are not about to have […]
Our new EconoMonitor is the result of many months of contributor and reader feedback. But, while our site has been upgraded, our goal of creating a platform for the exchange of ideas has not changed. Founded by economist Nouriel Roubini in 2006, the EconoMonitor continues to feature the insight of some of the most respected […]
Is America facing a day of reckoning with debt? Or is this time different? These are perhaps the most critical questions the United States (US) as well as rest of the world face today. The US fiscal deficit is projected to be 10.8 percent of the country’s GDP in 2011 and the accumulated general government […]
On Thursday, we brought together an impressive array of scholars to discuss the causes and consequences of, and policy responses to, long term unemployment, including Prakash Loungani, Advisor in the IMF’s Research Department, Kenneth Scheve, Professor of Political Science at Yale, Phillip Swagel, Professor of Public Policy at the University of Maryland, and a former […]
Last week The New York Times reported that the drug cartels, after shaking the political and economic structures of Colombia and Mexico to their foundations, are moving into Central America. Just one more sign, as if we needed it, that the United States is losing its endless war on drugs.
The budget for fiscal year 2012, just published by the White House, presents an optimistic prognosis for US fiscal health. Like all budgets, it looks ahead not just one, but several years. The budget deficit, expected to be 10.9 percent of GDP in 2011, is projected to fall to 7 percent in FY 2012 itself (October 2011 through September 2012), then to 4.6 percent in 2013 and 3.6 percent in 2014. By 2018, the budget is supposed to show a small primary surplus (surplus before interest expense), something essential if the debt-to-GDP ratio is to be stabilized.
Some optimistic experts are now saying that though this will be a turbulent year for global markets, the worst of the financial crisis is now behind us. Would it were so. We believe that 2009 will be tougher than many anticipate.