The People’s Verdict on Globalization

The People’s Verdict on Globalization

photo: Nicolas Raymond The similarities in the electoral appeals of businessman Donald Trump and Senator Bernie Sanders have been widely noted (see, for example, here, here and here). Both men attract voters who feel trapped in their economic status, unable to make progress either for themselves or their children. Moreover, both men have assigned the blame for the loss of […]

US Fed: It Is Not “The When”, It Is How Long It Will Take to Normalize Policy

Key takeaway – On September 16-17, the US Federal Reserve (Fed) will take a difficult decision: to hike rates for the first time in nearly a decade – or wait. It is a close call: US domestic economic conditions could justify tighter policy but remain fragile. While the GDP is growing, inflation is below the […]

U.S.: Manufacturing Employment Signals Economic Growth

It’s widely recognized that the manufacturing sector is highly sensitive to the business cycle. Employment trends in this corner tend to react earlier to macro distress compared with payrolls generally. As a result, monitoring this slice of the labor market offers a valuable benchmark for evaluating the macro trend. The good news is that these […]

U.S. Makes Progress Toward Rebalancing

Manufacturing output is returning to pre-recession levels, exports are continuing to grow,and the trade balance is shrinking. Manufacturing output has risen more rapidly than output overall; to some degree this is unsurprising as manufacturing is highly procyclical. Figure 1: Log manufacturing output (blue) and GDP (red), in Ch.09$, rescaled to 2009Q2=0. Source: BEA, BLS via FRED, […]

ISM Manufacturing Index: December 2013 Preview

The ISM Manufacturing Index is expected to increase marginally to 57.8 in today’s December update (scheduled for release this morning at 10:00 am New York time), based on The Capital Spectator’s average econometric forecast. The estimate compares with the previously reported 57.3 for November. Meanwhile, the Capital Spectator’s average projection is moderately above a trio […]

An Upside November Surprise In Industrial Activity

Industrial production beat expectations by a hefty degree in today’s November update. Output increased 1.1%, well above most estimates, including The Capital Spectator’s forecast for a modest 0.3% rise. In addition, October’s mild contraction was revised up to a modest gain. Although today’s release is good news for the economy, the trend may not be as strong as the […]

ISM Manufacturing Index: October 2013 Preview

The ISM Manufacturing Index is expected to increase marginally to 56.3 in tomorrow’s October update (scheduled for release on November 1), based on The Capital Spectator’s average econometric forecast. The estimate reflects a trivial rise from the previously reported 56.2 for September. Meanwhile, the Capital Spectator’s average projection is substantially higher than three consensus forecasts […]

US Industrial Production: September 2013 Preview

Tomorrow’s US industrial production report for September will be postponed due to the government shutdown. Although the numbers are produced by the Federal Reserve, which remains operational thanks to funding that’s independent of Congressional approval, the central bank advises that this report relies on “a range of data from other government agencies, the publication of which […]

ISM Mfg. Index Rises In September. On The Other Hand…

The modest rise in the ISM Manufacturing Index in today’s September update surprised most economists, based on consensus forecasts that anticipated a decline. But the advance to 56.2 last month–the fourth consecutive gain for this benchmark–matched yesterday’s average econometric projection via The Capital Spectator. More importantly, this early look at September’s macro profile suggests that economic growth remains the […]