President Erdoğan’s New Turkey

Key takeaway – Prime Minister (PM) Erdoğan will win the Presidential elections in the first round, with 52 percent of the vote. Emboldened by popular support, over the next five years he will actively rule the country and re-shape key institutions to consolidate Presidential power. Tensions will rise internally and externally. The opposition will condemn […]

Which Way Turkey?

The direction is clear – Turkey is moving towards a state governed by Islamic law and custom. The first round of the election for a new president will be held on August 10. Current Prime Minister Erdogan is a shoo-in. He has consistently moved Turkey in a more conservative direction and has surrounded himself with […]

Turkish Monetary Policy Exacerbates Inequality

In my previous Hurriyet Daily News (HDN) column, which I also posted here, I illustrated the difference between market and academic economists (or economics columnists) by explaining what the Central Bank should and would do at Thursday’s rate setting meeting. The Central Bank did cut its policy rate by 50 basis points as expected yesterday, […]

‘Should’ Turkish Monetary Policy

In my latest Hurriyet Daily News (HDN) column, I discuss what the Central Bank of Turkey should do at Thursday’s rate-setting meeting- versus what it will actually do. You can read the whole thing at the HDN website, and I have a few additional points to make. First of all, I was planning to write […]

A Tale of Two Turkeys

You probably often see very conflicting views of the Turkish economy. If you are sick of my gloomy writings (hey, it is called the dismal science), there are plenty of columns and research reports painting a rosy view of the Turkish economy. So how can we reconcile these different assessments? Well, the easiest way out […]