Fishing for a Bottom to Dollar-Yen

Fishing for a Bottom to Dollar-Yen

photo: faungg Since the initial spike higher when the BOJ provided some operational tweaks to its asset purchase program on December 18, the dollar has fallen 5.6% against the yen through Tuesday’s low near JPY116.70.  We had warned that the break of JPY120 would spur a move to JPY118, and the move below JPY118 targeted the August low near JPY116.20. While […]

Don’t Believe Your Lying Eyes

Don’t Believe Your Lying Eyes

Chinese equities continued their precipitous decline, interrupted by the new circuit breakers, which reportedly will be suspended. Global equity markets are also in a dramatic decline. However, do not be misled. Knowing the direction of China’s blue chips (CSI 300) does not really help predict the direction of the US equity market, even though it […]

The Year 2016 Requires Tough Decisions in Nigeria

The Year 2016 Requires Tough Decisions in Nigeria

photo: Nicolas Raymond After the plunge of the commodity prices, the US Fed’s rate hikes are paving way for dimmed prospects in many emerging economies. Nigeria is not an exception. Recently, the US Federal Reserve raised interest rates by 25 basis points, taking the first step away from its near-zero interest rate policy. Advanced economies are […]

We Have Lift-Off

We Have Lift-Off

The Federal Reserve delivered a hawkish hike. The dot plot reflects expectations for four rate hikes in 2016. There were no dissents. This is important. It underscores the decisiveness of the decision. There have been three voting Fed members that were thought to be likely dissents. The Fed will also continue to reinvest maturing securities […]

Whither Emerging Markets Foreign Exchange Reserves

Whither Emerging Markets Foreign Exchange Reserves

After a exponential rise in foreign exchange reserves accumulation by emerging markets from 2000 onwards, the tide seems to have turned south since mid-2014. Changes in capital flows and commodity prices have been major factors behind the inflection, with the new direction expected to remain, given the context of the global economy going forward. Although […]

Look Who’s Buying American Democracy (VIDEO)

Look Who’s Buying American Democracy (VIDEO)

According to an investigation by the New York Times, half of all the money contributed so far to Democratic and Republican presidential candidates—$176 million—has come from just 158 families, along with the companies they own or control. Who are these people? They’re almost entirely white, rich, older and male—even though America is becoming increasingly black […]

APEC 2015: Change Is in the Air

APEC 2015: Change Is in the Air

Despite diplomatic missteps, APEC 2015 could pave way to regional peace and development. The triangular perspectives of Washington, Beijing and Manila tell the story. -Dan Steinbock Washington’s exclusive policies In Washington’s view, President Obama’s presence in the Asia Pacific Cooperation (APEC) Summit was vital to underscore America’s sustained commitment to the region. With its recovery, […]

Why the Real Shadow Banking Risks Are in the US and Europe, Not Just China

Why the Real Shadow Banking Risks Are in the US and Europe, Not Just China

photo: Billy Wilson “The world’s shadow banking has returned to the high levels of the 2008-9 global crisis. While international concerns focus on China’s shadow banking, new data shows that the largest risks are by far in the United States, Europe, the UK and Japan.” -Dan Steinbock  In August, the Financial Times reported that 11 Chinese shadow banks […]