A New Banking Crisis?

A New Banking Crisis?

Bad Numbers Today, there are over $3 trillion in stressed loan assets, compared to around $1 trillion of US sub-prime loans which was the catalyst for the 2008/2009 crisis. The World Bank estimates the ratio of non-performing loans (“NPLs”) to total gross loans is comparable the 2009 levels of 4.2% in 2009. Several loci of […]

European Union Recovery – Surprise Economic Story of 2017

European Union Recovery – Surprise Economic Story of 2017

  Against all odds, and contrarily to a generalized gloomy scenario of the past years about the destiny of the European Union, the Euro area has surprisingly recorded a stronger than expected economic growth in the first semester of 2017 and a rather optimistic and reinvigorated political turnaround in favour of the EU. During this […]

We Need More Europe. Which Europe? Hints from Strategic Games

We Need More Europe. Which Europe? Hints from Strategic Games

One of the “consensus views” drawn from the hard lessons of the global crisis exploded in 2008 is that in Europe, and in the Monetary Union (EMU) in particular, the crisis was exacerbated and prolonged by some deficiencies in the original design of the EMU as a supranational institution with the overarching purpose of generating […]

A Pilot for the Governance of the Euro Is Required Immediately

A Pilot for the Governance of the Euro Is Required Immediately

  photo: Christine und Hagen Graf After the Brexit, European leaders are faced with the strict obligation to make Europe credible, particularly by consolidating the weak pillar of the Euro, namely, economic governance. This must henceforth be piloted by a Finance Minister. This step, which is necessary for the survival of the Euro, must be taken […]

Beyond the Ballot: Turkey’s Economy at the Crossroads

Beyond the Ballot: Turkey’s Economy at the Crossroads

Turkey has been approaching a crossroads for some time now. Soon enough it will have to choose a direction. On April 16, 2017 Turks will vote in a referendum on President Recep Tayyip Erdogan’s proposed constitutional amendment that would shift the country’s power center from a parliamentary system to a presidential one. If successful, not […]

Return of Sovereign France- Europe’s Changing Landscape

Return of Sovereign France- Europe’s Changing Landscape

photo: Nathan Hughes Hamilton  In France, President Hollande’s utter failure to foster broad consensus for structural reforms has paved the way for a contested election. While public debate focuses on Emmanuel Macron as the savior of France, the real story is that Marine Le Pen’s agenda has shifted the French political landscape. Before TV debates, the […]

The Incidence of the Border Tax – EU Multinationals Win, US Multinationals Lose

The Incidence of the Border Tax – EU Multinationals Win, US Multinationals Lose

  photo: GotCredit The destination based cash flow tax (DBCFT) with border tax adjustment (BTA) as outlined in the so-called Ryan blueprint[1] (named after its main proponent Rep. Paul Ryan) is perhaps the most exciting policy proposal of the last decade – and it is certainly the least understood. There is a wide variety of contradictory […]

Le Pen-ization of France: Europe’s Changing Landscape

Le Pen-ization of France: Europe’s Changing Landscape

photo: Dennis Jarvis In France, President Hollande’s utter failure to foster broad consensus for structural reforms has paved the way for the most contested election in decades. While public debate focuses on the 2nd round winner, the real story is that Marine Le Pen’s agenda has already shifted the French political landscape. In recent polls, the […]

Italy’s Predicament is Europe’s Predicament

Italy’s Predicament is Europe’s Predicament

photo: Elliott Brown Durand and Villemot (2016) examine two nncreasingly likely Eurozone scenarios – a single country exit and the complete breakup – concluding that while both scenarios should be taken seriously, their consequences should not be exaggerated. In particular, in the case Italy were to leave the euro – the scenario I will henceforth call […]

The Coming Italian or French Phases of Europe’s Economic Crisis

The Coming Italian or French Phases of Europe’s Economic Crisis

Low interest rates, continuing injections of liquidity by the European Central Bank (“ECB”), fiscal stimulus to varying degrees assisted by low government borrowing costs, a fall in the Euro and sharply lower energy prices are hiding deep-seated and unresolved problems in Europe. Despite the ongoing Greek drama which is incapable of resolution, the European crisis […]

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