Autumn’s Known Unknowns

During the height of the Iraq war, then-U.S. Secretary of Defense Donald Rumsfeld spoke of “known unknowns” – foreseeable risks whose realization is uncertain. Today, the global economy is facing many known unknowns, most of which stem from policy uncertainty. In the United States, three sources of policy uncertainty will come to a head this […]

China to Dominate the 2013 Coal Market

China is the world’s largest coal producer and consumer and currently accounts for about half of the global coal consumption. The U.S. Energy Information Agency noted in its 2012 country analysis brief on China, “Coal supplied the vast majority (70 percent) of China’s total energy consumption of 90 quadrillion British thermal units (Btu) in 2009,” […]

The IMF on overinvestment

The IMF’s Il Houng Lee, Murtaza Syed, and Liu Xueyan have published a very interesting and widely noticed study called “Is China Over-Investing and Does it Matter?” In it they argue that there is strong evidence that China is overinvesting significantly. According to the abstract: Now close to 50 percent of GDP, this paper assesses the appropriateness […]

How America Builds Its Way Back to Balance

The following is an excerpt from The Reckoning: Debt, Democracy and the Future of American Power, with a forward by Dr. Nouriel Roubini, available in the United States on this week from Palgrave Macmillan and in Europe on 17 May. Moran, a former RGE vice president and geostrategy analyst, is now Director and Editor-in-Chief of […]