US Interest Rates: Risky Gradualism

US Interest Rates: Risky Gradualism

photo: donielle In December 2015, after over 2 years of procrastination, the US Federal Reserve delivered a 0.25% increase in official interest rates, the first in nearly a decade. The rise is symbolic, intended to signal the end of the crisis and a start of normalisation. But already events have cast doubts on the wisdom of the […]

How International Is International Monetary Fund?

How International Is International Monetary Fund?

photo: World Bank Photo Collection Recently, the International Monetary Fund announced “historic reforms” in its governance. In reality, changes have barely begun. The IMF does not look like the world it purports to represent.  During the global crisis of 2008/9, advanced economies could no longer contain the devastation. As a result, the old G7 club of […]

Iran’s Eagerness To Export Sees Oil Tanking Again

First wel’ll take a quick look at some of the critical figures and data in the energy markets this week. Oil broke below $30 per barrel late last week as Iran returned to the international economy and prepared to export more oil. (Click to enlarge) (Click to enlarge) Chart of the Week Oil-related tax receipts […]

ZIRP Ends Unanimously

The Federal Reserve ended its zero interest rate policy today with a unanimous vote by the FOMC to raise the federal funds rate. From the Fed statement:“The Committee judges that there has been considerable improvement in labor market conditions this year, and it is reasonably confident that inflation will rise, over the medium term, to its 2 […]

Fed Rate Hike Bad Timing for Crude Oil

The Federal Reserve is about to raise interest rates for the first time in almost ten years and it couldn’t come at a worse time for the oil and gas industry. On the one hand, the oil boom was fueled by loose money from the Fed. With near-zero interest rates, money flowed into capital-intensive shale […]

Jobs Data Keeps Fed on Track to Hike

Jobs Data Keeps Fed on Track to Hike

After the ECB’s disappointment yesterday market nerves were shattered, but the largely as expected US jobs data may help the focus return to the underlying fundamental fact. The ECB just eased policy. Not as much as the market expected, and that speaks to market positioning, but it did ease. And the 211k increase in November […]

Could The Tide Be Turning Against North American Natural Gas?

by Dave Forest of  A lot of hope has been pinned on liquefied natural gas (LNG) exports as an outlet for surging North American gas supply. But a couple of events the past week show that getting LNG exports off the ground may be more difficult than most observers have predicted. The biggest potential setback […]

Why Are Macroeconomic Imbalances Important for the European Monetary Union?

According to a well established view of the crisis in the European Monetary Union (EMU), its seeds were planted well before the world financial collapse of 2007-08 and the subsequent Great Recession. The seeds, “macroeconomic imbalances” in the Brussels language, lie in the lack of real (and, to some extent, nominal) convergence across member countries. […]

October Jobs Jump Does Not Mean the World has Changed

Last Friday, many news headlines screamed about a massive beat on the Nonfarm Payrolls number. I spoke with Kevin Harris, a Director on the North America team at EconoMonitor’s sister company, Roubini Global Economics, who provided context on the NFP number and the broader trend that it represents. Nonfarm payrolls surged 271,000 in the month […]

The Rigging of the American Market

Much of the national debate about widening inequality focuses on whether and how much to tax the rich and redistribute their income downward. But this debate ignores the upward redistributions going on every day, from the rest of us to the rich. These redistributions are hidden inside the market. The only way to stop them […]