MacroWatcher: Italy To Bring Anxiety Back to Eurozone

For the first time in five years, the eurozone has had a relatively quiet summer. With German elections looming, it was unlikely there would be any significant developments in Europe, and positive economic data has added to the recent calm. But with summer ending, it’s possible that political turmoil in Italy could be the catalyst […]

MacroWatcher: Weekly Global Overview

Last Friday was a good example of the incongruity that often exists between economic indicators and financial markets. The US Labor Department announced that 169,000 new jobs were added in August, falling short of economists’ forecasts of 175,000 to 180,000. The Department also announced that the number for July was revised lower from 162,000 to […]

MacroWatcher: Macro Risks Loom in September

Volatility has returned to markets this week and it seems set to escalate in September. Aside from events in Syria and behavioral factors such as September being the worst month for US stocks, there are a variety of macro developments that could heighten market instability.   Fed Tapering The most dominant issue over the summer […]

MacroWatcher: Weekly Analysis

August is one of the most popular vacation periods, but few expected the Nasdaq to take a three hour holiday on Thursday. The shutdown was blamed on a technical glitch, and the blame lies squarely with Nasdaq software unlike previous outages in 1987 and 1994 when the group accused squirrels of tampering with power lines. […]

Monetary Policy, BRICs and Why Gauging Investors’ Market Forecasts Is Futile, But Fun

Gauging the opinions of investors can be an appealing, if ineffectual practice. Posing straightforward questions to consumers about how they find current employment opportunities or asking manufacturing firms about supplier deliveries can provide a reasonable guide to economic conditions. But surveying groups of investors for their market forecasts will typically result in answers that are […]

Ireland Agrees on Repayment Deal with ECB, but Much More Is Needed

When Ireland’s banking crisis forced bailout assistance from the IMF/EU/ECB troika in 2010, the IMF was identified by the Irish public as the driver of harsh austerity measures. “IMF Out” placards were a common sight at protests around Dublin. Several years later the IMF has become Ireland’s strongest advocate for recovery, openly supporting relief for […]