U.S.-China Trade War in the Offing?

I was on BBC Monday, talking about the latest trade spats developing between the U.S. and China.  Over the past few weeks, the U.S. imposed two distinct sets of retaliatory tariffs on Chinese-made solar panels (and just today, followed up with similar sanctions on Chinese-made wind-turbine towers).  Last Friday, China struck back by asking the […]

China – No Guarantee

In my debate with Andrew Batson in The Guardian in March, I noted that: There really are two related but distinct things people have in mind when they talk about a “hard landing” for China. The first is a rapid deceleration of GDP growth – below, say, 7%. The second is some kind of financial […]

China Real Estate Unravels

As a prelude to a broader analysis of China’s GDP, and the accuracy of its official GDP figures, I want to start by examining the national real estate statistics for the first four months of 2012.  This discussion feeds into the broader GDP picture, but the property story that has been unfolding is important and […]

China’s Pulitzer Prize

I just got back from a two-week family visit back to the U.S., and things have been anything but quiet while I was gone:   naval confrontations in the South China Seas, Chen Guangcheng’s flight to the U.S. embassy, the annual US-China Strategic and Economic Dialogue (S&ED) in Beijing … and now, the expulsion of a […]

China: Inflated Notions

Early last week, I went on Bloomberg to talk about China’s latest economic figures, and boy did I kick up a hornet’s nest.  In a nutshell, I said that I was finding it harder and harder to reconcile China’s official CPI, GDP, and PMI numbers with what I was seeing and hearing on the ground.  […]

How Low Can Bo Go?

I was on Bloomberg yesterday, sharing some thoughts on the big political drama unfolding in Beijing.  And drama it truly is — on the order of All the King’s Men or Macbeth.  You can watch my comments here.  You can also read some additional comments I made in an AFP article here. As most readers […]

Don’t Blame the (Chinese) Banks

The main reason I disliked the Academy Award-winning documentary Inside Job was that it sought to explain America’s subprime financial crisis in terms of good guys vs. bad guys.  If only there were more good guys than bad guys, and more people listened to the good guys, then bad things wouldn’t have happened. I don’t […]

Debating a ‘Hard Landing’ in China

This Thursday, March 22, The Guardian (of the UK) published a friendly email “debate” between Andrew Batson, of Gavekal Dragonomics, and me over whether China’s economy faces a “hard landing” in 2012 — with me arguing that it does, and Andrew that it doesn’t.  You can read our exchange below, or access the original here. […]

A New Investment Thesis for China

Last week, I gave a speech to the CFA Institute Asia Pacific Investment Conference in Hong Kong, on “The Investment Thesis for China.”  One of the Institute’s members, C.K. Lee, posted this excellent summary of my talk on SeekingAlpha.com.  You can access the original here.  As I joked to the delegates, this was probably the […]

Bo’s Ides of March

Yesterday morning, I had just started writing up a summary of the key takeaways from Wednesday’s big press conference by Wen Jiabao, when Xinhua dropped the big bomb:  Bo Xilai has been sacked from his post as Party boss of Chongqing, to be replaced by Vice Premier Zhang Dejiang (no word yet on whether Bo […]