The Trouble With Emerging Markets

LAGOS – The financial turmoil that hit emerging-market economies last spring, following the US Federal Reserve’s “taper tantrum” over its quantitative-easing (QE) policy, has returned with a vengeance. This time, the trigger was a confluence of several events: a currency crisis in Argentina, where the authorities stopped intervening in the forex markets to prevent the […]

Slow Growth and Short Tails

The global economy had another difficult year in 2013. The advanced economies’ below-trend growth continued, with output rising at an average annual rate of about 1%, while many emerging markets experienced a slowdown to below-trend 4.8% growth. After a year of subpar 2.9% global growth, what does 2014 hold in store for the world economy? […]

Back to Housing Bubbles

It is widely agreed that a series of collapsing housing-market bubbles triggered the global financial crisis of 2008-2009, along with the severe recession that followed. While the United States is the best-known case, a combination of lax regulation and supervision of banks and low policy interest rates fueled similar bubbles in the United Kingdom, Spain, […]

Bubbles in the Broth

As below-trend GDP growth and high unemployment continue to afflict most advanced economies, their central banks have resorted to increasingly unconventional monetary policy. An alphabet soup of measures has been served up: ZIRP (zero-interest-rate policy); QE (quantitative easing, or purchases of government bonds to reduce long-term rates when short-term policy rates are zero); CE (credit […]

The Eurozone’s Calm Before the Storm

NEW YORK – A little more than a year ago, in the summer of 2012, the eurozone, faced with growing fears of a Greek exit and unsustainably high borrowing costs for Italy and Spain, appeared to be on the brink of collapse. Today, the risk that the monetary union could disintegrate has diminished significantly – […]

Autumn’s Known Unknowns

During the height of the Iraq war, then-U.S. Secretary of Defense Donald Rumsfeld spoke of “known unknowns” – foreseeable risks whose realization is uncertain. Today, the global economy is facing many known unknowns, most of which stem from policy uncertainty. In the United States, three sources of policy uncertainty will come to a head this […]

Nouriel Roubini Speaks at NYFA 2013: Is Africa’s Robust Growth Sustainable?

Over 600 business and political leaders gathered recently in Libreville, Gabon, to debate and help shape Africa’s road map. RGE Chairman Nouriel Roubini shared his perspective on what the future holds for this region and provided policy guidance. As attendees looked at whether the increasingly robust economic growth in Africa is sustainable, Roubini talked about […]

Roubini and Bremmer on Charlie Rose: Unveiling New Abnormal

After the Great Recession, commentators have espoused their idea of the “New Normal”—a post-growth era of stagnant developed economies. But is it so simple? Nouriel Roubini and Ian Bremmer appeared on Charlie Rose to discuss their take on what the new paradigm will be like. Roubini differentiated what he is calling the “New Abnormal”: “Our point […]

De-Risking Revisited

Until the recent bout of financial-market turbulence, a variety of risky assets (including equities, government bonds, and commodities) had been rallying since last summer. But, while risk aversion and volatility were falling and asset prices were rising, economic growth remained sluggish throughout the world. Now the global economy’s chickens may be coming home to roost. […]

After the Gold Rush

The run-up in gold prices in recent years – from $800 per ounce in early 2009 to above $1,900 in the fall of 2011 – had all the features of a bubble. And now, like all asset-price surges that are divorced from the fundamentals of supply and demand, the gold bubble is deflating. At the […]