Five-Minute Macro

Is it just Macro Man, or are we living in a world of five-minute macro? It seems as if tradeable macro themes get as much traction these days as someone wearing ballet shoes on an ice rink. If you don’t like the theme of the minute, hey! Just wait. Another one will be along shortly. […]

Summertime

Although it’s only the last week in May, markets have taken on the distinct flavour of summertime. Perhaps it’s because it’s the half-term school holiday here in the UK. Perhaps it’s because the Premiership football season ended yesterday, and we mentally associate “no football” with “summer.” Or perhaps it’s because, right on cue, the rains […]

Sell American. I Am.

It’s hard to believe that Warren Buffett’s “Buy American” op-ed was more than seven months ago. How time flies!! Macro Man wonders, however, if some foreign (Chinese, perhaps?) Buffett equivalent hasn’t written a contra piece, entitled “Sell American. I am.” For how else to explain yesterday’s price action, in which the dollar, US equities, and […]

Quick Hits

Macro Man’s a bit tied up this morning, so it’s another edition of quick hits: * Orgy of optimism? The latest BofA/ML Global Fund Manager Survey showed the highest degree of optimism over the economy and profit growth since 2004. The survey also showed a massive re-allocation into EM equities, which has taken positioning there […]

The Answers

And now, the answers. Yesterday’s little quiz was a pretty fascinating exercise. Although a few commenters noted (some more politely than others) that in normal conditions, it is actually quite tricky to distinguish market price action from random walk, this ignores two factors. First, most of the past eighteen months have not been normal conditions, […]

The Randomizer

Another day, another trip through the grist-mill of seemingly random (and certainly erratic) price action. In some ways, it doesn’t seem to matter if you are bullish or bearish; if you’re trading tactically, it’s very, very easy to get caught out by the seeming randomness of it all.So easy, in fact, that Macro Man wonders […]

Too Obvious?

Can a good technical set-up sometimes be too obvious to work? While that might be the question of a man whose mojo continues to reside in the possession of Dr. Evil, it’s nevertheless the one that’s percolating in Macro Man’s mind this morning. Following on from Friday’s rather blah employment data, which were probably a […]

Quick Hits

Macro Man is a bit pressed this morning, so he’s reduced to offering up a few quick-hit bullet point thoughts: * It’s a trifle amusing, n’est-ce pas, that despite the well-publicized problems in the PIGS countries and Herr Steinbreuck’s denial of a credit crisis in Germany, the ECB’s contribution to credit easing (the purchase of […]

You Get What You Pay For

Another day, another rip higher in equities. Despite the dodgy leg, Macro Man is starting to harbour a desire to visit Pamplona this July. For someone with his relatively bearish disposition, that running of the bulls would appear to be considerably less dangerous than trading equities at the moment. Fortunately for Macro Man, he by […]

Desireless

Macro Man is struggling to come up with much desire to have an active investment stance, let alone layer fresh risk, ahead of a few days fraught with event risk. Given the run-up in equities, EM, etc., it would be entirely plausible for those markets to sustain a setback as longs take some profits….which, if […]