20 Questions

Macro Man has little to add to yesterday’s market comments, as the SPX exhibited classic back and fill price aciton as it waltzed with the 200d moving average. It therefore seems to be an appropriate time to play another game of 20 questions: 1) Which will trade first: SPX 1000, or SPX 800? 2) Will […]

Back and Fill

Well, the SPX fell yesterday….but not quite enough to signal a greater likelihood of a deeper drop, closing just above its 200 day moving average, which, as we established in yesterday’s comments section, is either an important technical signpost or a load of old rubbish. Regardless, it is worth noting that volumes have not yet […]

What If?

Another day, another Chinese data dump. Today’s figures were perhaps more of an unalloyed positive, with retail sales coming in slightly better-than-expected, while industrial production confirmed recent leaks by comfortably exceeding consensus forecasts. Today’s data also left little doubt as to the source of this economic “miracle”, meanwhile; M2 growth printed a robust 25.7% y/y. […]

Shellshocked

Somewhat contrary to Macro Man’s expectations, yesterday proved to be more of a low-volume consolidation day than anything else. Sure, there was still some action in fixed income (though the magnitude of price changes paled in comparison to Friday, and most flow seemed to be in option space), but FX action was fairly listless and […]

Carnage

After spending the last twelve weeks floating in the warm, comfortable ether of the reflation trade, markets received a rather rude awakening on Friday. Part of it was down to the birth/death model-assisted “good” print in non-farm payrolls. Part of it was down to comments from Atlanta Fed president Lockhart that the FOMC could start […]

A Little Perspective

At last, the end of an eventful week is upon us with the release of US unenjoyment figures today. Yesterday’s central bank hoe-down was a bit of a limp fish, with no particularly earth-shattering revelations from the BOE, BOE, or JCT. Yet there was one interesting datapoint that certainly caught the eye, particularly in advance […]

The Sharp End Of The Stick

OK, now we’re getting to the sharp end of the stick. Yesterday had all the hallmarks of a potential “turnaround day”, but perhaps fell a bit short. With the ECB/BOE/BOC today and US non-farms tomorrow, there is no kind of price action that should surprise (except, perhaps, a low-volume, summery flat-lining.) The currency market has […]

Re-Engaging

It’s hard to believe that it’s June already. Perhaps it’s because he’s had the whole knee saga to distract him, perhaps it’s because he’s another year closer to the dreaded “four-oh”, but man, Macro Man has found that time has really flown this year. The good news, from Macro Man’s perspective, is that he feels […]

Month-end Thoughts on Valuation

Hard to believe it’s month-end already. Gee, time sure does fly when you’re having fun. (Or…..B.) In any event, the lack of massive equity moves, such as we’ve observed for most of this year, should preclude the sort of month-end fixing/rebalancing jiggery-pokery that’s been observed for the past six months. Perhaps the most interesting thing […]

Hmmmmm

For all the talk of “green shoots”, “second derivative improvements”, “positive feedback loops”, and “Chinese stimuli”, perhaps the most important economic development of the year thus far as been sharp fall in credit costs to the US private sector (demonstrated by the Merrill Lynch indicator below.). Putting aside the issue of whether you can borrow […]