These days the interest rates on 30 day-time deposits have reached 12.2%, the highest level in the past 21 months, while the interbank rate rose from 9.8% to 12.6% in a matter of days (reaching 14% at its peak), only to return to previous levels. The big question is whether this rise was simply due […]
The business and political moods have been going up and down much faster than the change of seasons. During our summer the country was in confrontational mode and the theme was the conflict with the Central Bank about the use of international reserves to pay the debt and the removal of Martin Redrado from the Central Bank. During the fall we enjoyed a peaceful period as we celebrated our bi-centennial with rock concerts and parades in the streets. The Kirchners’ were starting to try to woo the middle class and were struggling to improve in the opinion polls.
Argentina’s inflation is now approaching the 20% range, as it has recently accelerated from the mid-teens levels. There is now a heated debated about its causes, the possible paths that inflation can take in the future and the key variables that one needs to monitor in order to try to predict where it can go. […]
There is never a quiet time in Argentina, even in a year in which the conditions were ripe for smooth sailing. Back in December all the evidence was indicating that Argentina was going to grow, that it would enjoy a significant reduction in country risk with the prospects of regaining access to the international financial markets, that it would accumulate international reserves and that the only dark cloud in the horizon was the risk of a small rise in inflation.
Sunday’s election results marked the beginning of the end of the K era, while the final deadline is 2011, when the new government takes over. It is clear that the Kirchners lost the election, and that they have no chance of a comeback. The next president will almost certainly be more moderate politically and more […]