The Week Ahead: An End to the Debt-Limit Stalemate?

In chess, a stalemate is a drawn game. Chess players study endgames, where small advantages become big wins. Computers have now solved these endgames – all of them! Some require dozens of precise moves. A mistake converts a draw into a win or a loss. Humans make mistakes. Political processes are inherently human. It is […]

Will Markets Look Beyond the Washington Logjam?

Is it premature to think ahead, to a time after the budget and debt logjam is broken? Markets are celebrated for anticipatory power. There are already some signs this is happening. We would all enjoy relief from the parade of politicians and pundits –and especially the annoying and unhelpful countdown clock. For the last two […]

What Will the Government Shutdown Cost?

The most important issue facing the US markets and economy is the pending government shutdown. If this expands into a debt default, the implications reach worldwide. As I accurately forecast last week: “Despite a busy economic calendar this week will focus on Washington and the inability to compromise on important decisions. There are two key questions: […]

Economic Bloggers See Modest Growth, Modest Risk Ahead for U.S.

We welcome the return of the Survey of Leading Economic Bloggers. Tim Kane spearheaded the survey during his Kauffman Foundation tenure. Tim has moved to the Hudson Institute, where he has busily been writing books [with important policy implications according to this NYT review – the OldProf has this on the reading list, but is still catching up], and […]

Will Fear Beget More Fear?

Last week I predicted that the major theme for the week would focus on whether rising interest rates would kill the stock market rally. That was reasonably accurate, since the interest rate story was on the front burner during the wild Wednesday announcement of the FOMC minutes and also in the discussion of the disappointing […]

Weighing the Week Ahead: Is It Time To Book Profits?

In last week’s WTWA I predicted a snoozefest, and that was pretty accurate. I also wrote, “Because column inches and air time must be filled whether there is real news or not, I expect a week laden with speculation about tapering, who will become the new Fed chair, and whether economic data warn of a […]

Weighing the Week Ahead: A Vacation Snoozefest?

In last week’s prediction for the week ahead I guessed that it was time for action. That was an accurate guess for the bountiful news flow, but not so much for the markets. We had some significant intra-day swings, but the reports had an offsetting effect. Those who were not following the daily news might […]

Weighing the Week Ahead: Are You Ready For Action?

In last week’s prediction for the week ahead I guessed that it would be “all about earnings. From a market perspective that was mostly accurate despite some competing stories: charges against SAC Capital, fresh speculation about the new Fed Chair, and the arrival of Prince George. This week will be quite different with three distinct […]