Worst Case Scenarios vs. Fat Tails: A Discussion of Climate Change

Summary: Threat assessment requires understanding not just of worst case scenarios, but their odds of occurrence. Yesterday’s post looked at the math: A guide into the weird numbers that run our world, describing both financial bubbles & climate change — power laws, Black Swans, and Dragon Kings. If the worst case scenarios come true, we’ll all become […]

Let’s learn from this inevitable crisis, which results from flaws in our system

Summary: While the shutdown and debt ceiling crisis probably ends in days or a few weeks, the lessons we learn from it can help us better manage the similar crises that lie ahead. Failure to learn and respond to these might have ugly consequences during the next decade. Today we look at one of the two vital lessons. […]

Status Report on US Economy: Where We Are, Where We’re Going

After a near-recessionary 4th quarter (and the start of the extraordinary QE3), the US economy slowly accelerated during the first two quarters of 2013. Much depends on that growth continuing. With monetary and fiscal policy already running at full throttle, another slump would force ugly choices. Today we survey the confident (but shrinking) forecasts of […]

The Second Step to Reforming America

Summary:  The most frequent request by readers is for solutions. How can we reform America? This is another in a series of posts attempting an answer. Today we consider what kind of organization might accomplish so great a goal, and what tactics it should use. It will take special people to reform America. The problem: […]

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