There’s a Cat, a Killer, and There’s Shiller

Crouched behind the magnolia bush, I can hear rustling inside shrubs ten feet away. The night is quiet…deeply still. As quick as I can swallow there is a sudden, two-second onslaught of screeches and scratches to my back and shoulder before I throw the howling cat to the ground…in hackneyed suspense, my heart finally settles, […]

Measuring Risk From U.S. Tax Bracket Changes

Let’s take a trip down the Amazon River. Some of the dangers we might face are malaria, wild predators, and who knows, maybe even a batch of hostile natives. But what if we knew without a doubt that we would arrive back to civilization unharmed?  Our special knowledge would remove the danger from all those […]

Does the Fed Write Songs for One Direction?

“You don’t know you’re beautiful; that’s what makes you beautiful” – One Direction. “One Direction says I’m beautiful because I don’t know I am! “I think I’d kiss Harry or Zayn if they were… Wait! I have to like, already be beautiful for me to not know I’m beautiful.  So how can not knowing I’m […]

Surgical Masks with NIKE Logo…Good Idea?

They move through the corridors of countless hospitals, delivering babies and saving lives. They are heroes who, at times, push their limits–ever perfect targets for the ubiquitous NIKE marketing machine. Maybe it’s time for big banks to borrow a page from NIKE’s playbook and find heros to propagate their brands and improve the industry’s image. […]

Alec Baldwin, Millard Fillmore & Why the Market will Crash

Alec Baldwin keeps getting more interesting. There are thirty more pounds of cheeky Baldwin then there were decades ago and if you haven’t noticed, he’s looking an awful lot like our 13th president Millard Fillmore… Eerie isn’t it? Fillmore bucked the average and lived to be 74. He had more than a sliver’s chance of […]

Markets 1 – Forecasters 0

The stock market is like a celebrity diva. We hate it…and we love it, sometimes we obsess over it. Like Miley Cyrus, some can’t seem to hear or talk enough about it.  But, for 2013, the market has been more like Clay Mathews of the Packers, hitting us from behind then leaving us prostrate, except with […]

Does My Gut Need an Algorithm?

There’s something we admire about persons who make firm, gut-decisions and then take decisive action.  But, do gut decisions pay or are we better off going against our intuition and relying on calculated odds?  For over a decade Monty Hall, of Lets Make a Deal showed contestants three curtains.  One hid a big prize like a […]

Alpha as a Statistical Outlier

The article questions the potential hand of dumb luck in portfolio manager performance, something the alpha formula, by virtue of being so tightly synonymous with “performance,” fails to recognize, but which some evidence supports. Please return later to read update.         The opinions voiced in this material are for general information purposes […]

Alpha as a Statistical Outlier

Alpha, which attempts to measure the risk-adjusted ability of portfolio managers against a benchmark, has become a moniker for manager and portfolio “performance.” However, we wouldn’t be wrong to consider that “performance” may be more of a misnomer than moniker.  Alpha’s link to outperformance, (when alpha is positive) debatably services what some might claim to […]