The “Recovery” in U.S. Housing Prices

Post-Crisis Supply Constraints and Prevailing Mortgage Interest Rates have Severely Exaggerated True Demand and Distorted Prices. Housing prices have recovered over 54% of their dramatic 33% decline from peak 2006 levels to their nadir in early 2012. Yet underlying data indicates that the price recovery is not a recovery in the demand for owner-occupied homes. […]

The Battle Going on in the Financial Markets Right Now

Recent economic data on wages, retail sales, and oil and other trade prices have severely undermined the blind confidence of equity markets that prevailed in 2014, and present market conditions are not likely to reverse themselves soon. 2014 was the battle of the cyclicalists vs. the secularists, in both markets and economic data, and that […]

Why the Fed is Flummoxed by the U.S. Labor Market:

A New Analysis of Employment in the Era of Secular Stagnation and Global Oversupply   U.S. Jobs in 2014―A New Conundrum   Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics and author’s re-indexation. Aggregate payroll growth in 2014 has been concentrated in low wage sectors and, for reasons discussed in this report, is not transmitting effectively to consumption […]

Closing Dinner Remarks — The Hyman P. Minsky Summer Seminar — June 21, 2014

Closing Dinner Remarks The Hyman P. Minsky Summer Seminar June 21, 2014 Daniel Alpert The Levy Economics Institute of Bard College Annandale-on-Hudson, New York This past weekend I was very honored to give the closing dinners remarks at the Levy Economic Institute’s Hyman P. Minsky Summer Seminar, which talk is set forth below.  The Summer […]

The Stubborn Slump in Advanced Economies: Fighting the Last War is Not a Path to Success

The following is a modified excerpt from my new book, “The Age of Oversupply: Overcoming the Greatest Challenge to the Global Economy,” which will be released for sale by the Penguin Portfolio division of Penguin Random House on September 26th. With the developed world economies still unable to escape from a condition of persistent economic […]

A Short Note on Cyprus and its Aftermath: The “Euro A” and the “Euro B” – Giving the Eurocrats a “Time Out”

Europe needs a short term disaggregation plan—of the type suggested by myself and others over the past two years—pursuant to which the debtor nations beset with massive underemployment and failing economies—would withdraw from the Eurozone-proper and adopt a “Euro B” currency, administered by the ECB, with a pegged exchange into the existing “Euro A.”  Such […]

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