Random Shots on Global Monetary Policy, Martin Wolf and Small Business Lending

Sovereign risk and debt continues to mark the fault lines in the global macro landscape and thus the main discourse. In this context and although the technical recovery is still a reality the discourse has started to move into a decidedly bearish mood. I find this interesting since while financial markets, in traditional fashion, have reacted strongly and early on the sovereign debt crisis in Europe it is only now that we are about to close the book on H01-2010 that we are seeing significant and lingering worries from all sides that the we are headed straight into a double-dip recession.

No Recession in the Global Economy, but Divergence Aplenty

Yours truly is actually a macroeconomist, indeed with a knack for financial markets, but still; a macroeconomist nonetheless. However, you would not have gotten that impression from the writings here end last week where I worried a lot about the worry of financial markets. I still do, worry that is, mostly because we are in a very delicate situation where a severe shock in financial markets can easily and quickly be transmitted into the real economy. Moreover and as Edward eloquently conveys in his recent post the structural challenges we face are complex and difficult.

The Eurozone Bailout – Are We Still Standing?

As we are about move into the fourth day of the week where EU policy makers together with the IMF and the ECB launched an unprecedented series of aid tools to combat the mounting risk of a collapse in Greece and elsewhere in the European periphery I am finally ready to move in with some comments. First of all, there has been no shortage of comments, opinions and market calls on the back of the bailout package and while risky assets have indeed rallied, it is if the underlying reality of the situation looms ever more prescient underneath the surface than what one would have expected from such a colossal dose of stimulating policy.

Demographics and the Anatomy of International Capital Flows

In a week where the deck of cards that make up the Eurozone got its so far largest jolt and where there is now not only an imminent danger of a total economic collapse in Greece but also, much more worryingly, signs that Germany herself are beginning to tire of a common monetary union I thought it would be nice to take a longer term and structural perspective on the global economy. And what better way to do this than to dig into the world of academia. 

Interesting Paper on Leveraged Buyouts and Private Equity

Christmas is fast approaching and I thought that instead of writing up Alpha.Sources’ pendant to the flurry of 2010 market outlooks (it will come at some point over the Christmas), I would point you to a recent paper I read on leveraged buyouts and private equity industry. The paper is written by Steven N. Kaplan and Per Strömberg at the Institute for Financial Research in Stockholm and offers a nice overview of industry which has grown in importance since it was conceptualized in the roaring 1980s and spawned stories such as Wallstreet as well as it was of course an integral part of the story of Milken and the junk bond market‘s rapid ascend and subsequent fall from grace.   

Global Growth Forecasts – Seeing is Believing?

As we move into year’s and perfectly in line with seasonal regularity we are flooded by a veritable tsunami of sell and buy side research on the big themes of 2009 and those to come in 2010. Now, we can add another to the list in the form of the latest quarterly review from BIS […]

Rebalancing in the Baltics – A Preliminary Assessment

“In my view … it is impossible to understand this crisis without reference to the global imbalances in trade and capital flows that began in the latter half of the 1990s.” Bernanke (2009) Executive Summary Compared with the average quarterly value of GDP in 2007-08, the first two quarters of 2009 are down in nominal […]