RGE’s Christian Menegatti and Arnab Das Discuss China Slowdown, Oil Prices, and Potential Fed Action

Christian Menegatti, managing director of economic research at Roubini Global Economics, and Arnab Das, managing director of market research and strategy at Roubini Global Economics, consider the investment implications of China’s impending slowdown, the fear premium on oil prices and potential Fed action.  

Latin America: A Closer Look at Inflation and Growth Dynamics in Brazil, Mexico, Argentina and Colombia


The Central Bank Weekly Focus Survey released on February 19 showed that inflation expectations for year end 2010 continued to move away from the mid-point of the central bank target range of 4.5% (+ -2%), while the monetary policy rate (SELIC) stayed unchanged.  Moreover, GDP growth expectations for 2010 were revised marginally up and the real (BRL) for year-end 2010 stayed unchanged.

Could Capital Inflows to EM be Slowing?

One by-product of the massive capital reallocation to emerging market economies, highlighted by RGE for some time, has been a sharp acceleration in foreign exchange reserves accumulation. Central banks, particularly in emerging market economies, have been adding reserves at the pace of an average US$250 billion per quarter since Q2 2009 as they sought to reduce the appreciation and volatility of their currencies.  IMF data reported that the global reserve stock exceeded US$7.5 trillion in Q3 2009, well higher than aggregate pre-recession levels. October and November data suggest that Q4 looks to be more of the same story.  At this pace (US$1 trillion annualized), reserve accumulation in excess of the deficits of the U.S. and other “overspenders”.

Financial Meltdown Reshaping Wall Street

In a dramatic turn of events, the Federal Reserve Board extended a $85bn secured credit line at LIBOR+850bp to AIG, the biggest insurer in the world, in exchange for a 79.9 percent stake in the company. As Lehman, AIG is a large player in the off-balance sheet credit derivatives and structured finance market, but with […]

Where Is this U.S. Recession Already?

So, good news on the real GDP growth (3.3% in Q2 2008) front and U.S. stocks rally. But is it really good news? Let’s dig a bit deeper, maybe past the headlines… Personal consumption was revised slightly upward from 1.5% of the advanced release (adv) to 1.7%. Not a major change. Notwithstanding the stimulus package […]