Oh, No! 2013 Fiscal Cliff Could Crush Stocks!

Is there a more reliable fade than Donald Luskin? Exactly one year ago this week (May 4, 2012), Luskin exhorted WSJ readers to dump equities because The 2013 Fiscal Cliff Could Crush Stocks. “Do the math on dividend taxes” he advised, warning that dividend yields would be lower, and stock prices would be considerably lower — […]

Case Shiller: Home Prices Rise in February 2013

Data through February 2013 showed average home prices increased 8.6% and 9.3% for the 10- and 20-City Composites in the 12 months ending in February 2013. For data junkies, you can access more than 26 years of history for these series in full by going to homeprice.spindices.com. Additional content on the housing market may also […]

Twitter: Your First Source of Investment News

How Twitter is becoming your first source of investment news By Barry Ritholtz, Washington Post April 21 2013 On Monday afternoon at 2:56 p.m., three hours after the fastest runner of the Boston Marathon crossed the finish line, my Twitter feed lit up. Someone in the office yelled “Two explosions at the Boston Marathon, may […]

Did Reinhart-Rogoff Screw Up Their Debt Research?

Holy Snikes, this is HUGE, from Mike Konczal: “In 2010, economists Carmen Reinhart and Kenneth Rogoff released a paper, “Growth in a Time of Debt.”Their “main result is that…median growth rates for countries with public debt over 90 percent of GDP are roughly one percent lower than otherwise; average (mean) growth rates are several percent lower.” […]

Corporate AAA Yields vs 10 Year, 1857 – Present

Moody’s Corporate AAA bond yields vs US 10yr Constant Maturity Yield to 1857 Click to enlarge   There is a tendency to look at the S&P500 Dividend Yields vs US 10 year, but in many ways, that is a less than ideal comparison. Corporate Bonds are more of an apple to apple comparison. Note that […]

The New Great Rotation: Commodities into Bonds

You probably heard the chatter over the past few quarters: “The Great Rotation” was about to unleash a new leg up in Equities. Bonds were going to be sold, equities purchased, and a new leg up was starting. The story goes something like this: U.S. Treasury Bonds had enjoyed a 30 year bull market, and […]

S&P 500 Index at Inflection Points

Click to enlarge Source: Standard & Poor’s, First Call, Compustat, FactSet, March 31, 2013   Each quarter, J.P. Morgan Asset Management puts out a lovely guide to the markets. Its filled with all sorts of excellent and informative charts — its 70 pages long, and its free. Check it out. Category: Markets, Technical Analysis This piece is cross-posted from […]

Fifth-Year Rally Precedents

Click to enlarge How have markets done in the 5th year of a bull run? The chart above comes from Jeffrey Kleintop, LPL Financial’s chief market strategist. The bull market that began in March 2009 is the seventh to last at least four years since World War II. Of those seven, only four ran for […]

Dividend Yield vs. 10-Year Bonds to 1877

Equity Index Dividend Yield vs 10 yr Bond to 1877 click for larger graphic   With nearly every major developed country in the world and their central banks — FOMC, ECB, BOE BOJ, etc. — have driven their interest rates to zero, investors are hunting for yield. (Maybe someone can securitize risky mortgages or sumpthin’). […]

Investors Should Ignore Politics

Politics matters little to your investment outcomes. This has been a theme of mine for nearly forever. I discuss this in presentations all the time.  It was — literally  — my first column for the Washington Post. And yet the financial press simply cannot get enough of this stuff. They love a good narrative. While these story […]