Peña Nieto’s Public Security Mirage and The Perils of Diversion

One of the key failures of President Calderon’s efforts against organized crime was the lack of an effective communications strategy. Calderon embarked on a highly complex “war” against organized crime but consistently failed to inform Mexican citizens of the justifications for fighting. When a country goes to war, the government needs to continuously keep the […]

Mexico’s Tax Reform in the Works: Preview and Initial Considerations

After early speculation that President Peña Nieto would unveil his much anticipated tax reform during the 2013 spring congressional session (February 1st – April 30th), Finance Minister Luis Videgaray recently confirmed that the comprehensive tax and expenditure package would not be unveiled until the second half of this year. According to Videgaray and other PRI […]

Mexico: Five Key Political Risks in 2013

The next year promises to be a challenging year in terms of politics and security. On the heels of a contentious presidential election and soaring levels of criminal activity, the country’s political transition opens the possibility for a new era of reforms and policy changes that could drastically improve the country’s outlook. At the same […]

Mexico: Positive Outlook for Labor Reform After Passing the Lower House

On September 29th, after hours of intense debate, the Lower House voted 351 to 130 to approve an edited version of the labor reform bill that was submitted by President Calderon on September 1st. To recall, Calderon introduced the bill under the newly created fast-track option called legislative priority, which meant that the Lower House […]

Upcoming Change at Banxico: Some Initial Thoughts

December 15th marks the end of Jose Sidaoui’s second term as a member of the governing board of Banxico, Mexico’s central bank. Although Sidaoui could remain for another eight-year term, most insiders believe he will not seek to retain his current position as he has already held the post for 16 years. Like other central […]

Mexico: Prospects and Limitations of AMLO’s Election Challenge; Polarization on the Rise

Overview On July 7th, the Federal Electoral Institute (IFE) published the results of the final district-by-district count for the presidential election. According to this final count, which included vote-by-vote recounts of over 50% of voting centers, PRI candidate Enrique Peña Nieto (EPN) won 38.21% of the vote, PRD candidate Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador (AMLO) 31.59%, […]

Mexico’s 2012 Presidential Elections: PRD Candidate’s Recent Surge – Outlook and Ramifications

PRD presidential candidate Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador’s (AMLO) recent surge from third to second place in the polls has generated concerns about him seriously challenging PRI candidate Enrique Peña Nieto (EPN) or even winning the election. While it is clear to many that AMLO is not a Mexican Hugo Chavez, the memory of his polarizing […]

Mexico’s Emerging Student Movement Shakes Up Election Dynamics

Amidst a generally dull election season, an incipient social movement calling itself “I’m132” (YoSoy132) is shaking up the presidential campaigns. This decentralized and apparently nonpartisan movement is composed of thousands of students and young people and relies heavily on social media to organize and communicate. Its members appear to be united against what they perceive […]

Mexico 2012 Presidential Elections: Finance Minister Cordero may not Pursue PAN Nomination

Since our last update on the presidential aspirations of Finance Minister Ernesto Cordero, doubts have intensified regarding his potential resignation in anticipation of a bid for the PAN party presidential nomination in early 2012. Though still the favored successor of President Calderon, Cordero’s competitive outlook is not promising at all. A Mitofsky poll published earlier […]

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