MENA Real Estate: A Positive Outlook, Despite Current Challenges

Key takeaway – In a challenging global and regional context, the MENA real estate sector is showing resilience and holds strong prospects. While the global economy is characterized by weak fundamentals, below-potential growth and low inflation, the regional outlook is hampered by political instability and declining oil prices. Yet, the MENA real estate sector, despite […]

President Erdoğan’s New Turkey

Key takeaway – Prime Minister (PM) Erdoğan will win the Presidential elections in the first round, with 52 percent of the vote. Emboldened by popular support, over the next five years he will actively rule the country and re-shape key institutions to consolidate Presidential power. Tensions will rise internally and externally. The opposition will condemn […]

Understanding Turkey: Lower Banking Sector Profitability Ahead

Key takeaway—Over the next five years, Turkey’s banking sector profitability is expected to slow, as ‘return on equity’ will decline from 18.4 (10-year average) to 13 percent; however, banks’ balance sheets will remain healthy, with a capital adequacy ratio above 12 percent. Over the next five years, Turkey’s economic growth will slow. Over 2015-19, despite […]

ECB Measures to Boost Bond Performance, Not Growth

Growth is still low … Yet to recover from the 2008-crisis, the global economy faces below-potential growth prospects. Until the developed world pays down sovereign and corporate debt, deleveraging and unemployment will constrain the recovery. Frail consumer confidence, sluggish demand and the ensuing drop in consumption in advanced economies will not be offset by final […]

Understanding Bitcoins

What is a Bitcoin? Introduced in 2009 as a peer-to-peer payment system, the bitcoin developed into a digital currency (BTCs).  Today, the BTC is a financial network able to both transfer and create money. BTCs issuance and use is decentralized (see below), and loosely regulated by the Bitcoin Foundation, a non-profit organization. As BTCs are […]

Recovery Still Policy-Led, Political Risks on the Rise, EMs Under Pressure

Five years into the crisis, the global recovery remains supported by policies[1]. In 2014, monetary policy will remain accommodative, to facilitate the healing of the financial system and private sector deleveraging. While the Federal Reserve (Fed) will gradually reduce quantitative easing (QE), the European Central Bank (ECB) and the Bank of Japan (BoJ) are likely […]

Hold Those Bonds

The recent sell off … Over the last month, after the US Federal Reserve (the Fed) signaled it might curb – and progressively end – its bond-buying program, the markets slumped. Under the threat of reduced central bank stimulus and higher interest rates, all asset classes co-moved, downwards. Bonds were most affected: June was the […]

Understanding Egypt

A turbulent political transition: from hope … In February 2011, a youth-led movement toppled President Hosni Mubarak. A 30 year-dictatorship ended in 18 days. About 800 people died. As elsewhere is the Arab world, the popular uprising intended to subvert an élite-centric political and economic system. The military, led by commander-in-chief and defense minister Mohamed […]