Turkey: Lower Reserves and Higher Rates, but Market Turmoil Is Unlikely

Turkey: Lower Reserves and Higher Rates, but Market Turmoil Is Unlikely

Key takeaway – Despite declining reserves and increased interest rates, Turkey is unlikely to suffer a market-crash over the next 12 months. What happened? Since the July 2016 coup attempt, the reserves of the Central Bank of Turkey’s (CBRT) declined. Gross international reserves declined by 14 percent (by USD 14.5 bn, from USD 104.7bn to […]

H2-2017: Where to invest?

H2-2017: Where to invest?

Key takeaway – The investment environment remains challenging. In their portfolios, investors should: i) privilege a multi-year horizon; ii) focus on capital preservation by adopting a defensive risk profile; and iii) accept lower expected returns in exchange for lower volatility. Wealth preservation requires conservative investment strategies, with a greater exposure to alternatives. The recommended strategic […]

Qatar: Six Countries Sever Diplomatic Ties, Gulf Unity Under Threat

Qatar: Six Countries Sever Diplomatic Ties, Gulf Unity Under Threat

   A. What happened? On June 4 2017, Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Egypt and Bahrain cut diplomatic ties with Qatar. The four Arab countries—joined a few hours later by Yemen and the Maldives—decided to: a) interrupt their diplomatic relations with Qatar; b) expel Qatar from the coalition currently fighting in Yemen; c) interrupt all transport links […]

The Year Ahead: Where to Invest in 2017

The Year Ahead: Where to Invest in 2017

Source  Key takeaway – Across the globe, populism and protectionism are on the rise and macro fundamentals remain weak. In this challenging context, growth will remain subdued in 2017, hampered by sluggish investment and productivity, ever-accumulating savings and modest inflation. With the exception of the Unites States (US), developed markets (DMs) will stagnate, burdened by […]

Italy: Willingness to Reform Is the Issue, Not the Referendum

Italy: Willingness to Reform Is the Issue, Not the Referendum

Source Key takeaway – Italy’s prospects are lacklustre and growth is stagnant. The political system is focused on privilege preservation, fostering populist feelings. Reforms are needed but – due to a reluctant electorate and a cumbersome legislative process – are difficult to implement. Over the past three years, Renzi’s government announced many important reforms, but […]

Election Time: Will Populism Block Effective, Needed Policies?

Election Time: Will Populism Block Effective, Needed Policies?

  Key takeaway – The global economy is stagnating, financial markets are jittery and citizens disfranchised. Effective policy options are available, but – alas – most are not politically viable. Over the next 12 months, key elections will take place in the US, France and Germany and a constitutional referendum in Italy. Populist parties are […]

Italy: Can Reforms Lift Growth Prospects?

Italy: Can Reforms Lift Growth Prospects?

Key takeaway – The Italian economy is large, relatively diversified and sturdy. Historically, growth has been driven by external factors (e.g.: the “economic miracle” after World War II) or political efforts (e.g.: competitive devaluations and fiscal spending between the 1970s and the 1990s). For decades, innovation and international competitiveness lagged most peers. After joining the […]

Global Outlook: The Next Five Years

Global Outlook: The Next Five Years

Global outlook: the next five years Alessandro Magnoli Bocchi Key takeaway – Over the next five years, mega-trends will not support an acceleration of global growth. Consumption, investment and productivity will remain sluggish, inflation low. Macro fundamentals are weak: high debt and unemployment will constrain performance. Developed markets (DMs) will stagnate and emerging markets (EMs) […]

Turkey’s Failed Coup: What’s Next?

Turkey’s Failed Coup: What’s Next?

photo: RadikalBlog Key takeaway – In Turkey, a coup attempt failed in less than 12 hours. President Erdoğan has declared that “the government is in control” and he is “not going to compromise”. What is next? Likely, Erdoğan’s popularity will increase, and constitutional changes will lead to a presidential system. Instability will continue, crackdowns on […]

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