Japan’s Great Recession: Lessons for Today’s Global Crisis

Japan’s Great Recession: Lessons for Today’s Global Crisis

  photo: Nicolas Raymond The Land of the Rising Sun emerged from the prolonged stagnation of the 1990s by carrying out various initiatives such as deregulation, privatisation and fiscal consolidation; these methods remain relevant today for many developed and developing countries. For some developed countries, the crisis that began in 2008 was far from being the […]

China’s Q3 Indicates Cyclical Stabilization, Secular Challenges

China’s Q3 Indicates Cyclical Stabilization, Secular Challenges

photo: Allan Watt According to the third-quarter data, China’s economy grew 6.7 percent for a third consecutive quarter. Critics claim otherwise. Yet, the real disagreement involves business cycles and secular trends. China’s sequential growth is now at 7.2 percent; fastest in three years. Manufacturing and service sectors may have bottomed around 2015/16 and have risen since, […]

Capital Flows and Financial Crises

Capital Flows and Financial Crises

photo: Nicolas Raymond The impact of capital flows on the incidence of financial crises has been recognized since the Asian crisis of 1997-98. Inflows before the crisis contributed to the expansion of domestic credit and asset booms, while the liabilities they created escalated in value once central banks abandoned their exchange rate pegs and their currencies […]

Innovation Alone Won’t Change Habits

Innovation Alone Won’t Change Habits

I like observing people. Not in a creepy, nosy way. More in a want-to-understand-how-people-behave kind of way. For example, I pay attention to how people standing in front of me in a line pay for purchases. What I have observed, I am sure, is not the product of bad luck: a not-insignificant fraction of people […]

U.S. 2016 Divides Advanced and Emerging Economies

U.S. 2016 Divides Advanced and Emerging Economies

photo: Vince Alongi In advanced and emerging economies, preferences for either Clinton or Trump differ based on the candidates’ views on trade, the economy, and foreign policy doctrine. Though Clinton is the preferred candidate in most areas, whoever the next U.S. president is will face – and may contribute to – significant challenges on several continents. […]

Can Cities Benefit from Last-Mile Energy Innovations in Rural Areas?

Can Cities Benefit from Last-Mile Energy Innovations in Rural Areas?

Visit to EnDev projects in Peru. Photo: Diego Pérez. 20 million people do not yet have access to electricity in Latin America. Around 90 million people are still dependent on solid fuels—mainly biomass and kerosene—to cover basic needs such as heating and cooking, which limits their access to lighting and contributes to greenhouse gas emissions. […]

US 2016 Election: Will US-China Relations Change

US 2016 Election: Will US-China Relations Change

photo: DonkeyHotey After one of the most degrading races in postwar history, US presidential campaigns are getting still dirtier. But will US-China relations change? As Wikileaks has disclosed information about Hillary Clinton’s email and Benghazi scandals and deep ties with Wall Street, her campaign, with its cozy media relations, is promoting Donald Trump’s obscene tapes and […]

A Straitjacket to Help Brazil Fight Fiscal Obesity

A Straitjacket to Help Brazil Fight Fiscal Obesity

Brazil’s GDP contraction since mid-2014 has multiple non-fiscal roots – Canuto (2016a; 2014) – but it has morphed into an unsustainable fiscal trajectory (Canuto, 2016b). Dealing with the latter has become a precondition for full economic recovery and the Brazilian government has submitted to Congress a constitutional amendment bill mandating a public spending cap for […]

Brazil Needs an Honest Waste Loss

Brazil Needs an Honest Waste Loss

Brazil has been suffering from anemic productivity growth. This is a major challenge because in the long run, sustained productivity increases are necessary to underpin inclusive economic growth. Without them, increases in real labor earnings tend to conflict with global competitiveness; collecting taxes in order to fund government expenditures on infrastructure and social policies becomes […]