Italy: Can Reforms Lift Growth Prospects?

Italy: Can Reforms Lift Growth Prospects?

Key takeaway – The Italian economy is large, relatively diversified and sturdy. Historically, growth has been driven by external factors (e.g.: the “economic miracle” after World War II) or political efforts (e.g.: competitive devaluations and fiscal spending between the 1970s and the 1990s). For decades, innovation and international competitiveness lagged most peers. After joining the […]

China’s International Renminbi Is Coming – Is Wall Street Ready?

China’s International Renminbi Is Coming – Is Wall Street Ready?

photo: Craig Engleson On October 1, the Chinese renminbi officially joins becomes the fifth international reserve currency. Until recently, Washington played geopolitics to defer the renminbi’s internationalization. But what about Wall Street? On October 1, 2016, the Chinese renminbi (RMB) will officially join the International Monetary Fund’s (IMF) international reserve assets; that is, the SDR (Special […]

The Distributional Consequences of Preferential Trade Liberalization: Firm-Level Evidence

The Distributional Consequences of Preferential Trade Liberalization: Firm-Level Evidence

photo: Dirk Dallas Abstract We analyze data covering the near universe of U.S. foreign direct investment and disaggregated tariff data for all preferential trade agreements (PTA) signed by the United States. We find that preferential trade liberalization disproportionately benefits the largest and most productive multinationals. Specifically, our results indicate that U.S. preferential tariffs increase sales to […]

Turkey’s Economy at the Crossroads

Turkey’s Economy at the Crossroads

On July 15, Turkey’s tumultuous 2016 took a shocking twist as elements within the country’s military attempted a coup against the government of President Recep Tayyip Erdogan. The putsch rapidly snapped at the seams, and a night that began with soldiers blocking bridges yielded a morning with those same soldiers flogged by civilians in the […]

Will Migration Across the Mediterranean Dominate Migration Across the Rio Grande?

Will Migration Across the Mediterranean Dominate Migration Across the Rio Grande?

The massive migration from Mexico to the United States that began in the 1980s and ended in 2007 was one of the largest in history (Hanson and McIntosh). Nine years after the mass migration, the issue remains politically sensitive, and Donald Trump’s advocacy of building a Wall along the southern border contributed to his winning […]

Japan’s Impending Monetary Exhaustion

Japan’s Impending Monetary Exhaustion

  photo: Jordon Cheung Japan’s monetary gamble and Abenomics are approaching the end of the road. Neither Brussels nor Washington is immune to the adverse consequences of Tokyo’s monetary exhaustion, says Dan Steinbock. Recently, Japan’s second quarter GDP growth was revised up to 0.7 percent, after four consecutive quarters of stagnation. But don’t set your hopes […]

Russia And Saudi Arabia Playing A Risky Game Ahead Of OPEC’s Meeting

Russia And Saudi Arabia Playing A Risky Game Ahead Of OPEC’s Meeting

Having suffered massive oil revenue shortages and budget deficits since the oil price collapse in 2014, Russia and Saudi Arabia have now agreed to cooperate on stabilizing the oil market. What this “cooperation” will actually mean – freezing production levels, cutting them, ramping them up or keeping the status quo, remains to be seen. The […]

Dollar Mixed while Stocks Slide to Begin Last Week of Q3

Dollar Mixed while Stocks Slide to Begin Last Week of Q3

The US dollar is narrowly mixed.  The euro, yen and Swiss franc are higher, while the dollar-bloc and sterling are softer.  The moving element here is not so much the greenback, which serving more as a fulcrum, but idiosyncratic, country-level developments. The yen is the strongest of the majors. The dollar was turned back from above JPY101 and is now […]

Overcoming the Second Steel Crisis

Overcoming the Second Steel Crisis

  photo: David Clow Today, advanced economies blame China for steel overcapacity. In reality, four decades ago Washington and Brussels opted for bad policies, which China seeks to transcend. In the G20 summit in Hangzhou, some world leaders had harsh words for China’s steel overcapacity. Before the summit, President Barack Obama was urged by US lawmakers, […]

Why Do Top Execs Fear Trump, and Fear to Say So?

Why Do Top Execs Fear Trump, and Fear to Say So?

photo: Gage Skidmore It is not surprising that there is little love for Donald Trump’s presidential candidacy among the leaders of top US multinational corporations. Why then, asks Andrew Ross Sorkin of the New York Times, do they not speak out? Why do they quickly follow up their private comments with, “I could never say that […]