Despite Political Headwinds, Turkey’s Economy Remains Resilient

Despite Political Headwinds, Turkey’s Economy Remains Resilient

photo: Moyan Brenn Key takeaway – Global and local tensions are taking a toll on Turkey’s political stability. The conflict in Syria, terrorist attacks, the refugee crisis, and President Erdoğan’s divisive efforts to transfer executive powers to the presidency are breeding instability. Over the past year, the investment climate has worsened. Investors’ confidence is diminishing. The […]

Oil Prices Up As Dollar Drops And Gasoline Draws

Oil Prices Up As Dollar Drops And Gasoline Draws

photo: arbyreed Twenty-three years to the day after Charlie Brown hit his first home run in the Peanuts comic strip, and crude prices are swinging for the fences ahead of the weekly inventory report, rallying strongly. The market appears to be focusing on an expected draw to gasoline stocks and a lesser build to crude than […]

The Repercussions of Financial Booms and Crises

The Repercussions of Financial Booms and Crises

Financial booms have become a chronic feature of the global financial system. When these booms end in crises, the impact on economic conditions can be severe. Carmen M. Reinhart and Kenneth S. Rogoff of Harvard pointed out that banking crises have been associated with deep downturns in output and employment, which is certainly consistent with the experience […]

The End of Europe (As We Know It)?

The End of Europe (As We Know It)?

As the Eurozone is amid secular stagnation, its old fiscal, monetary and banking challenges are escalating, along with new threats, including the Brexit, demise of Schengen, anti-EU opposition and geopolitical friction. According to Dan Steinbock, Brussels can no longer avoid hard political decisions for or against an integrated Europe, with or without the euro. Since […]

Why Russian Oil Production is on the Verge of Decline

Why Russian Oil Production is on the Verge of Decline

photo: Tim Whitlow On March 1, Vladimir Putin delivered a workshop with the leaders of the eight largest oil companies in Russia, where participants discussed a preliminary agreement between Russia and OPEC. Oil industry representatives determined they had no choice but to freeze the oil production rate at the level of January 2016. They also expressed […]

Jamaica Is Jammin’

Jamaica Is Jammin’

The Bloomberg Business headline reads, “It’s Jammin’: Jamaica’s Tiny Stock Market Conquers World in 2015.” The news article explained that the Jamaica Stock Exchange (JSE) was the best performing stock exchange in 2015, with its index’s more than 80% increase outpacing all the other world indexes (for example, Dow Jones Industrial Average: -1%, and Euro […]

The Struggle for Brazil- and Against the BRICS

The Struggle for Brazil- and Against the BRICS

While international media focuses on Brazil’s mass demonstrations against corruption, efforts behind the façade precipitate regime change, restoration of a pre-Lula order, and a struggle against the BRICS nations. The U.S. feels threatened by an era of multipolarity, which deeply implicates China, and other emerging economies. In August 2016, Rio de Janeiro should host South […]

Toward Nigeria’s Takeoff

Toward Nigeria’s Takeoff

After decolonization, Nigeria was expected to industrialize fast in order to benefit from rapid growth and increasing prosperity. Yet, that “growth miracle” has still not materialized. Perhaps it is time to learn from the right lessons. “We have crude oil, but you cannot go to filling station and get fuel refined in Nigeria, except we […]

Part 3: The Ineffectiveness of Economic Policy

Part 3: The Ineffectiveness of Economic Policy

photo: Nicolas Raymond While the central bank and government policies have stabilised conditions, they have not restored growth or created sufficient inflation to address the world’s debt problems. As Helmuth von Moltke, a 19th century head of the Prussian army, observed: “No battle plan ever survives first contact with the enemy”. Given that the bulk of […]

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