Revised GDP Data Show US Economy Much Stronger than Previously Thought

Today’s report from the Bureau of Economic Analysis shows the US economy to be much stronger than previously thought. The advance estimate for the second quarter of 2014 showed real GDP expanding at an annual rate of 4 percent. The new data revised the dip in GDP for Q1 from -2.9 percent to -2.1 percent, […]

India’s New Government Messiah

Winning To the unrestrained delight of investors and financial markets, Narendra Modi has prevailed in the audition for India’s newest Messiah. The incumbent has been received rapturously, with commentators running out of superlatives and comparisons – Thatcher, Reagan and several Indian gods. Indian stocks, up over one-third since September 2013, and the rupee, up about […]

Hard Work and External Help: How to Successfully Conduct Macroeconomic Adjustment With Official Assistance

What are the factors that ensure a successful and durable completion of a financial assistance programme? Past experience with IMF-supported adjustment programmes underlines the importance of external conditions but also of fiscal consolidation, financial repair and structural reforms. These findings vindicate the strategy pursued in recent adjustment programmes in the euro area: putting the fiscal […]

The BRICS and the Bretton Woods Twins

The World Cup was not the only event of global significance to take place in Brazil this summer. The leaders of Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa met in the city of Fortaleza and announced the formation of two new financial institutions. One is the New Development Bank (NDB), which will finance “sustainable development” projects, […]

A Surprising Look Back at the Fed’s QE Programs

The Fed’s QE3 program is scheduled to end later this year. This will bring to a close the Fed’s five year experiment with QE programs. They have been incredibly controversial, especially among those who believe these programs enabled the federal government to run large budget deficits. Those holding this view typically make one of two […]

Increasingly Desperate Venezuela Makes Oil-for-Cash Deal With China

By Nick Cunningham: Venezuela is showing increasing signs of desperation as it takes out an additional $4 billion in loans from China in exchange for oil. The deal, announced July 21, will give embattled Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro an immediate influx of cash, which he needs to keep the economy afloat. Average Venezuelans are suffering […]

China’s Financial Risk

Three years ago I called attention to the NYU Stern Volatility Laboratory. Since then it’s grown into an even more amazing resource, giving anyone access to constantly updated information about financial conditions in dozens of countries around the globe. Of particular interest are recent changes in their measure of the systemic risk posed by financial institutions. The basic […]

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