Key Inflation Measures Slow as Q4 GDP Growth Revised Down to 2.4 Percent

Revised data released today by the Bureau of Labor Statistics showed that U.S. real GDP grew at an annual rate of 2.4 percent in the fourth quarter of 2014, somewhat slower than the 3.2 percent previously reported. Allowing for population growth of about 0.7 percent, the annualized growth rate of real GDP per capita was […]

A Simple Chart Illustrating Why Japan Style Deflation Is Now More Or Less Inevitable In Spain

Here’s one simple chart which illustrates why I think Japan style deflation is now more or less inevitable in Spain. Curiously it comes from the Ministry of Employment and illustrates the relation between the movement in average wages caused by actual movements in the real wage and those caused by what is known as the […]

Argentina: The Myth of a Century of Decline

On February 15 The Economist printed an interesting article about Argentina: “The tragedy of Argentina. A century of decline” with the subtitle, “One hundred years ago Argentina was the future. What went wrong?” As usual in that magazine, it is a nicely written article. But it is not, in my view, an accurate interpretation of […]

Recovery Still Policy-Led, Political Risks on the Rise, EMs Under Pressure

Five years into the crisis, the global recovery remains supported by policies[1]. In 2014, monetary policy will remain accommodative, to facilitate the healing of the financial system and private sector deleveraging. While the Federal Reserve (Fed) will gradually reduce quantitative easing (QE), the European Central Bank (ECB) and the Bank of Japan (BoJ) are likely […]

Could Mario Draghi Implementing QE at the ECB Possibly Help Matteo Renzi Raise the Italian Deficit?

What a convoluted title! Still, the lack of formal elegance might just be compensated for by its communicative efficacy. The aim of the above header is to link two names in people’s minds, both of them Italian: Mario Draghi and Matteo Renzi. Naturally the idea is not original, the FT’s Peter Spiegel  recently published an […]

Alec Baldwin, Millard Fillmore & Why the Market will Crash

Alec Baldwin keeps getting more interesting. There are thirty more pounds of cheeky Baldwin then there were decades ago and if you haven’t noticed, he’s looking an awful lot like our 13th president Millard Fillmore… Eerie isn’t it? Fillmore bucked the average and lived to be 74. He had more than a sliver’s chance of […]

Iran Reveals Details on New Contracts With IOCs

Iran announced new details on how it will design contracts with international companies seeking to develop Iranian oil and gas reserves, according to Bloomberg. At a conference in Tehran, Iranian officials stated that they will provide incentives for companies developing riskier fields in an effort to lift production. Iran appears to be planning for the eventual […]

What Is the Outlook for U.S. Monetary Policy?

Will the Federal Open Market Committee’s (FOMC) current large-scale asset purchase program, so-called QE3, continue to melt away as spring arrives? The release of theminutes from the January meeting of the FOMC, along with commentary from various participants in that meeting (noted in rapid succession here, here, and here, for example) have left the distinct impression that the […]

Are Chinese Capital Controls Still Binding? If So, to What End?

Today we are fortunate to have a guest contribution written by Yin-Wong Cheung, Professor on International Economics at City University Hong Kong, formerly professor at UCSC. The recent years have been a frustration for anyone trying to make sense of China’s capital control policies. Capital controls have been an important part the Chinese economic policies since the […]

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