Yes, We Can Afford Prosperity! Guest Post

I just received a copy of the recent newsletter of the Health Services Employees, Local 768, District Council 37, AFSCME, AFL-CIO. It contains three articles by Michael Merrill, Dean of The Harry Van Arsdale Jr Center for Labor Studies, SUNY. Michael presents a good application of MMT to support his argument that our sovereign government can, and […]

ISM Manufacturing Index: September 2013 Preview

The ISM Manufacturing Index is expected to increase to 56.2 in tomorrow’s September update (scheduled for release on October 1), based on The Capital Spectator’s average econometric forecast. The estimate reflects a slight rise from the previously reported 55.7 for August. Meanwhile, the Capital Spectator’s average projection is moderately higher than three consensus forecasts for […]

Flirting With Economic Insanity

Unless Congress gets its act together soon—today—it looks like we’re headed into a black hole of economic uncertainty. The two crunch dates on the horizon: tomorrow, October 1, when a potential shutdown of the federal government begins if the enlightened pols in Washington don’t come to an agreement on the budget real quick. But that’s small potatoes […]

A Synopsis of Fedspeak

Much Fedspeak this week, expressing a wide variety of views.  I need a scorecard to keep track, and I probably still missed one or two: New York Federal Reserve President William Dudley Event:  Speech, interview Taper?:  Sets a high bar for taper, seeing insufficient evidence that the recovery is either sufficient or sustainable. Notable quote: “Although the […]

Revisiting My 2011 Predictions

Since the beginning of the global crisis in 2007-08 I have argued that the crisis was a consequence primarily of global trade imbalances generated by structural features that led to significant saving imbalances in China, the US, and within Europe. I describe this model in more detail in my recent book, The Great Rebalancing: Trade, Conflict, and […]

What Will the Government Shutdown Cost?

The most important issue facing the US markets and economy is the pending government shutdown. If this expands into a debt default, the implications reach worldwide. As I accurately forecast last week: “Despite a busy economic calendar this week will focus on Washington and the inability to compromise on important decisions. There are two key questions: […]

Calculating the Impact of Austerity

Many people have been taken with a new paper, The Time for Austerity: Estimating the Average Treatment Effect of Fiscal Policy, by Òscar Jordà, of the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco and University of California, Davis, and Alan M. Taylor, University of California, Davis, the NBER, and the CEPR. At a time when the […]

The Bank of England Trumpets Recovery: Now to Lift Investment

Since Mark Carney took over at the beginning of July, most of the economic news has been significantly better than expected. Not only that but members of the Bank of England’s monetary policy committee (MPC), including the new governor, are both sounding decidedly upbeat and stressing their collective role in driving recovery. It is not […]

Fiscal Fiasco—This Time is Different?

It now looks like the government will shut down this evening.   The Senate is likely to make one more effort to pass a clean continuing resolution (CR), but at this stage the Republican House seems unwilling to let go of its animus for Obamacare.  Perhaps they will settle for something symbolic–one idea is for Congress […]

1 2 3 14