Janet Yellen: Maybe Not What You Would Expect

If two similar things with the same theme can be considered a “series,” then last night Reuters put out the second interview in what I’m dubbing the “Inside An Economist’s Brain” series. If you did not see the first one, I was interviewed about a month ago on a psychological profile I conducted of Larry […]

Does My Gut Need an Algorithm?

There’s something we admire about persons who make firm, gut-decisions and then take decisive action.  But, do gut decisions pay or are we better off going against our intuition and relying on calculated odds?  For over a decade Monty Hall, of Lets Make a Deal showed contestants three curtains.  One hid a big prize like a […]

Brazil’s Volatile Real: Why Currency Fluctuations are Painful

Brazil’s volatile currency, the real, is back in the news. Two years ago, the real hit all-time highs against the dollar. The rise prompted Brazil’s finance minister, Guido Mantega, to accuse the central banks of advanced countries, the Fed in particular, of conducting a “currency war” at his country’s expense.  Now the real is heading […]

Implications Of Our Global Nationalized Oil Market

A lot of people are excited these days about the growing diversification of the international energy sector. The potential (arguments for which often overlook the misleading promises) of American or North American energy independence has had people excited for over three years now, and for many the excitement grew with the now-famous International Energy Agency […]

MacroWatcher: Macro Risks Loom in September

Volatility has returned to markets this week and it seems set to escalate in September. Aside from events in Syria and behavioral factors such as September being the worst month for US stocks, there are a variety of macro developments that could heighten market instability.   Fed Tapering The most dominant issue over the summer […]

US GDP Growth Up on Better Trade Data, Inflation Down

The Bureau of Economic Analysis reported today that the U.S. economy grew at an annual rate of 2.5 percent in the second quarter of 2013. The advance estimate for Q2, released last month, had shown a 1.7 percent growth rate. Higher exports and lower imports were a major factor behind the stronger growth estimate. As […]

Quote Blast Loops May Have Caused Nasdaq Freeze

Nanex did some digging into market data before the Nasdaq blackout at 12:20 EDT on August 22, 2013. They discovered several significant periods of extremely high quote volume. By plotting the number of messages for each of the 6 multicast lines used by the Tape C SIP (Securities Information Processor), we discovered the quote blasts map […]

Iran Puts West in ‘Check’ With Omani Gas Deal

The Iranian government announced this week it secured a long-term natural gas agreement with its maritime neighbors in Oman. Iranian President Hassan Rouhani vowed to lead the country as a moderate when he was sworn in to office in early August.  The Iranian Oil Ministry vowed to move the country’s oil and natural gas industries […]

Fed May Still Have to Lower GDP Forecast

Boosted by better net exports and greater inventory accumulation, Q2 US GDP was revised higher to 2.5% from 1.7%.  This, coupled with a decline in weekly jobless claims, has kept the dollar bid.  The data and the seemingly less imminence of strike on Syria have lifted US interest rates. The US economy has regained some […]

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