Is it Possible that the Ongoing Events in Syria and Egypt were Planned?

Many are those within the governments in Washington, London, Brussels, Paris and other major capitals cities, who are burning the midnight oil trying to think ahead as to what may likely happen in Egypt and Syria.  Battle lines are being drawn between the secularists and the Muslim Brotherhood in Egypt, and between the Jihadists and Hezbollah in Syria.

The complexity of the situation has made it very difficult to predict what may transpire in the weeks and months ahead, in those two key Arab countries.

Though what appears to be a near certitude is that the two groups representing a real threat to the West and the pro-democracy movements – the jihadis and Hezbollah — are set to clash.

Egypt and Syria are both vital countries in the region.

Until recently many amongst those who follow Middle East politics closely, including this analyst, were under the impression that what was happening in the Middle East was haphazard. All that was happening was the result of knee-jerk politics; meaning that the actors in the conflicts(s) are reacting to events as they unfold, rather than to plan ahead and have a game plan for all eventualities?

But what if these events were not haphazard, what if they were not random happenings?

What if there was a set of carefully planned and delivered packets of plots of how to overthrow authoritarian regimes, and how to bring about your two most dangerous enemies (the jihadist and Hezbollah) face to face where they would clash between themselves and kill two birds with one stone, or in this case kill to radical Islamists with one stone.

If you dig deep enough into the roots of the Arab Spring you would be surprised by the number of connecting dots that tie the United States to the Arab Spring countries’ revolutionary movements. More precisely the connections between a very, very small and very elite group of US State Department specialists whose lines were crossed between the Pentagon, the State Dept. and former and/or current employees of Google.

What if indeed there was some great plot that was hatched to bring about the great changes that took place and now to push the two Islamist groups to clash with each other?

It remains highly improbable though not inconceivable that the US would resort to such underhanded tactics.

It is not unusual for people in the Middle East to blame all and everything that transpires in their region on the United States and its allies. More particularly to place the blame squarely on the Western intelligence services, mainly on the CIA.

It remains highly unlikely though not improbable that there was some Machiavellian planning involved that brought these two parties to fight out their differences on the Syrian battlefield.

But in order for something of that magnitude to work it would require Machiavellian thinking.

In a democratic and open society there are two setbacks right off the cuff:

1. The lack of Machiavellian thinking
2. Someone will talk and blow the whistle.

This piece is cross-posted from Oil with permission.

9 Responses to "Is it Possible that the Ongoing Events in Syria and Egypt were Planned?"

  1. EugenR   July 27, 2013 at 2:36 am

    Mr. Salhani. It happens ever and ever again, that whenever and whoever comes to write about the political social failure of the Arab-Muslim world instead to look inward to uncover the real obstacles preventing these countries to enter the road of modernization and creating decent social life and civil society, they look to blame someone else. The usual accused is of course the USA and Israel but never some internal political force, social reality or a despotic supporter like the formal USSR.
    Who is to be blamed that after decolonization in the fifties of last century Egypt, Syria, Iraq, Libya, Tunisia and all the rest become military dictatorships oriented on USSR. Who is to be blamed that G.A. Nasser, the most prestigious Arab leader since the times of Selahedine, the leader of Egypt, Arab world, one of the triumvirate of Third Word leaders, used his political prestige mainly to endorse international military conflicts, (and not only against Israel). Who is to be blamed that these dictators did not create some sort of liberal society that would at least educate its people and not bring Egypt to 21 century with 30% illiteracy? Who is to be blamed, that even after the collapse of USSR, when the failure of their centralized political, social and economic system of governance become so obvious that even some Sub-Saharan countries turned to democracy, in all the Arab countries the dictatorships continued as if nothing happened? Who is to be blamed that these dictatorships, let all the religious conservative political forces to be active beneath the official political leadership, while they strangled any secular God forbid liberal politically active civil society? Who is to be blamed, that to achieve political legitimacy, instead to loose their grip of political power, all these dictatorships turned to political Islam and by doing so, it even more postponed the adaptation of modern values in their countries, that are necessary to be able to run an effective political, social and economic system? Of course all the blame is on USA and its allies.

  2. BS Detector   July 30, 2013 at 4:00 am

    EugenR is clearly shilling for something or some one – his written English is far too poor. EugenR, so why is the United States (and indeed Israel) meddling in Syria and Egypt and why are you take such pains to remind us that Arab democracies don't work? Perhaps it's best for you to stick to worrying about the price of cottage cheese in Tel Aviv and why that highly "successful" democracy needs foreign handouts and cannot deliver either peace or propsperity to its own citizens – instead, a clumsy and heavy-handed national security state.

  3. margsview   July 30, 2013 at 4:15 am

    To a certain extend the US has been (with the Gulf Arab States) attempting to destabilize the Middle East. So, far Afghanistan, Iraq, Libya, and now Syria have all become weaken states in various decline and chaos. For decades these dictatorships have had varying degrees of control. At no time was there any serious concern on the part of the US about the living conditions of the peoples of these countries. Democracy and freedom have been simply verbiage, language used but not meant in any real sense. What was important was economic stability. Egypt changed on the ground but not in the governing power base. Their military is the crucial power broker that will allow a puppet leader or group of sorts but they will not relinquish their control over 40% of the domestic economy. Now there is of course the Muslim Brotherhood and their followers, who wish to be contenders as well as smaller groups (that are collecting around simply having a more open government). This fragmented group neither see the military or the Muslim Brotherhood as legitimate, but hope to finally be heard as Egyptians first, Islamist second. It is hoped this latter group will gain focus and the other two larger and stronger groups still can be made to see the futility in asserting their singular wills. To believe that the US has not been trying to hold sway is naive. What is happening in Israel is business as usual, the recent history of South America is a object lesson in economic power politics. The current US Israel/Palestinian negotiations will be typical in a sense, as it will result in the weaker side,(the Palestinians) ending up as the losers regardless of their loss of their country, and all that has cost in pain and anger. These negotiations have nothing to do with equitable outcomes, just what can be taken from the weakest side.

  4. BS Detector   July 30, 2013 at 5:30 am

    Funny isn't it? I comment on a comment clearly written by Bibi's web propaganda department at the IDF some five days ago and all of a sudden, I receive an instant reply. Learn to write English would be my advice to his henchmen: to wit "have all become weaken states"? The form, my boy is "weakened". Don't be so obvious…..hilarious!

  5. karen   July 30, 2013 at 10:29 am

    Oh dear – only Americans with impeccable Englis are allowed to comment? really?

    The mid-east has lost a great deal in life time and security – Israel has and so have the arab countries – it is sad and the US political elite has messed around the region with it's own objectives which dont always include the well being of the natives – but that is pretty much the MO for any political organization now and ever – so what is your point?

  6. jon   July 30, 2013 at 1:15 pm

    B.S. detector your feeble attempt to relay convoluted half truth is pathetic at best.
    indeed you are an anti semite full of B.S as your name implies.

  7. BS Detector   July 30, 2013 at 7:38 pm

    Ah, pulling out the old anti-semite stops are we? Thought you might all take the bait and go that route. I mean, if you can't speak English and you can't argue a point, you might as well try something else………amusing.

  8. CritCopy   July 31, 2013 at 2:16 pm

    Go back to the initial comment: Tunisia, under Bourguiba, was not a "military" dictatorship. Now to the last re "pulling out the old anti-semite stops …" Well, the Arabs speak a Semitic language, as do the Israelis. By the way, visiting Tunisia as a U.S. Jew in the early 1970s and always at once identifying myself as such, I was always treated most graciously. At some human level, there's a way out of these tensions. Is my home country, the U.S. of A., acting consistently to help? Or is it too big to be consistent?

  9. BS Detector   July 31, 2013 at 6:12 pm

    Excellent point CritCopy – "consistency" – I heartily agree. How can one bunch of semites be anti-semitic towards another (especially when it comes to their right to try for democracy) and then turn around and accuse a non-semite of being anti-semitic? Propaganda is the only way…………