Financial Spillovers and Deleveraging: The Case of Romania

This blog looks at foreign bank deleveraging and examines how Romania’s asset prices have been impacted from European crisis spillovers.[1] Foreign bank deleveraging has been orderly and moderate so far in Romania unlike in some peer countries. Findings from the spillover analysis suggests that Romania’s asset markets tend to co-move more closely with its regional […]

The Oil Boom Will Only Last a Decade – Then What?

Oil is fundamentally a depletable resource – once a barrel is extracted from the ground and burned, it is gone. Nevertheless, world oil production has continued to increase steadily for the last century and a half. Most economists attribute this to technological progress. Each year our methods for finding oil become more sophisticated, and our […]

QE4 vs. Dead Cat Bounce

click for updated futures   Since the market began its retrenchment a month ago, we have seen rallies on weak volume and selloffs on stronger volume. Historically, these are the characteristics of Dead Cat Bounces and softer rallies destined to fail. But over the past few years, we have also seen markets rally on expectations […]

The UK’s Future Jobs Fund Is Vindicated, provides some hope for a new Job Guarantee Program

Tanweer Ali has written a piece summarizing results from a new study on a partial Job Guarantee program in the UK that was scrapped and villified by the current government. As Tanweer explains, “The Future Jobs Fund was introduced in 2009 to address the problem of long-term youth unemployment. About 100,000 people in the 18-24 age group […]

The Return of Full Employment Policy

For the few who might happen to be in Finland next Monday, there is an upcoming conference. Details below. CONFERENCE: The Return of Full Employment Policy Program here: There will be an online live-stream from the event, at Press Release Date: December 3, 2012 Venue: Paasitorni, Sirkussali, Helsinki It is often argued that […]

Mr Market Feeling Better

Mr. Market is feeling a bit better today, and the dollar and yen’s safe havens are not as needed.  Global equities and emerging markets generally doing better.   Peripheral bond yields are mostly lower, and core bond yields marginally higher. The news stream has been favorable for risk taking.  The recovery in US shares yesterday, perhaps on […]

A Little Less Dovish…

In the midst of an internal debate over policy communication, Chicago Federal Reserve President Charles Evans pulled back on his 3 percent inflation threshold in a speech Tuesday.  Arguably, as the only policymaker suggesting guidance well above the Fed’s stated 2 percent target, Evans was the last true dove at the Fed.  With Evan’s falling in line […]

Social Security and the National Debt

In this season of fiscal brinksmanship, the topic of Social Security has once again come to the fore. Republicans are generally in favor of cutting benefits, although they are bit afraid to say so after the demise of George W. Bush’s privatization “plan”; Democrats are generally in favor of not cutting benefits. But many liberals […]

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