A Three-Day Homestretch

Hurricane Sandy has been uppermost in everyone’s concerns.  We have the greatest sympathy for those who have lost loved ones, homes, and businesses.  The effects of weather are often devastating in any setting.  Here in the midwest, it is often a tornado that strikes with little warning.  When a hurricane hits highly-populated areas, the effects […]

Good News Starts to Blow Away the Gloom in London

With David Cameron’s too broad hint of good news on the way to Labour’s obvious disappointment at a better-than-expected figure, the GDP numbers have become a political football as well as the nearest thing the Office for National Statistics has to a sexy announcement. It would be inconsistent of me not to say these preliminary […]

Three Key Developments

The US dollar is generally offered today.  There does not seem to be a major catalyst.  Rather technical factors, and in particular, the euro’s inability to fall through the $1.2880 area despite repeated tests appears to have encouraged the move to the upside, as the path of least resistance. Month-end flows are difficult to anticipate […]

Is Wall Street’s Thirst for Water Really a Dire Threat? Nonsense, Says David Zetland

Journalist Frederick Kaufman made a few waves last week with an article on water markets in Nature and a related interview in Wired. His cautionary story envisions a global water derivatives market that would allow speculators to rake in billions while poor farmers, priced out of the market, would be unable to irrigate their crops. […]


We’re nearing election day and unfortunately we’ve got no choice. Whoever wins the election, Pete Peterson wins. He’s bought off both the Democrats and the Republicans. We’re going to get fiscal austerity no matter what. Both parties promise to cut social benefits, punch more holes in the safety net, and let Wall Street continue to […]

Romney/Ryan on FEMA and NOAA

From National Journal, Governor Romney on FEMA: When asked about disaster relief and FEMA’s role in a debate in June of 2011, Romney said, “Every time you have an occasion to take something from the federal government and send it back to the states, that’s the right direction. And if you can go even further, and […]

Target Household Income

Scott Sumner recently came up with a new proposal for the Fed: I’m going to propose a compromise between the current policy of $40 billion bond purchases each month, and a radical policy of immediately targeting the forecast.  Have the Fed start QE3 at $40 billion per month, and then increase their purchases at a rate of 20% each […]

When the Growth Model Changes, Abandon the Correlations

Chiwoong Lee at Goldman Sachs has a new report out (“China vs. 1970s Japan”, September 25, 2012) in which he predicts that China’s long-term growth rate will drop to 7.5-8.5%. I disagree very strongly with his forecast, of course, and expect China’s growth rate over the next decade to average less than half that number, […]

On Coordinated Monetary and Fiscal Policy

Note:  This began as an effort to tie together various themes in my writing.  Unfortunately, short and succinct did not work.  So I apologize in advance for the length of this post. There are certainly trends in my writing.  One is that the Federal Reserve spent much of this year behind the curve by failing […]

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