A Post-Jubilee Bounce in the UK

After the distortions to the data for June, caused by two additional bank holidays (one shifted from May), there is a distortion in the opposite direction for July, industrial production jumping by 2.9%, its biggest monthly rise for 25 years, while manufacturing output rose by 3.2%. The release includes revisions to data for earlier months.

Reading through the distortions, industrial production in July was 1.6% above its second quarter average, so if it were to hold at the July level industry would make a significant contribution to GDP growth for the first time in several quarters. Industrial production was still down by 0.8% on a year earlier, while manufacturing output was down 0.5%, though in both cases these growth rates will soon turn positive if output merely holds at July levels. More here.

Also released, producer price figures for August showing a strong 2% rise in input prices (up 1.4% on a year ago), while output prices rose by 0.5% (up 2.2% year-on-year).

This post was originally published at David Smith’s EconomicsUK and is reproduced here with permission.

One Response to "A Post-Jubilee Bounce in the UK"

  1. Schofield   September 7, 2012 at 12:42 pm

    No reason what-so-ever to be optimistic. The Neo-Liberal Coalition Government's lunatic endeavour to reduce the National Debt by picking the people's pockets where the debt resides hasn't really begun to kick in yet. Then we'll begin to see the deflation accelerate since income allows spending but spending creates income. If only there was re-incarnation and we could bring back Wynne Godley to publicly chastise these headless chickens!