A Modest GDP Revision

There was no surprise in the fact that GDP was revised up for the second quarter – the first estimate from the Office for National Statistics of a 0.7% fall always looked too low. The surprise is that the revision, to a fall of 0.5%, was not bigger.

We knew the ONS estimates for industrial production and construction were too pessimistic, and each contributed 0.1 points to the revision. But there were also reaons to expect an upward revision to services, down 0.1% on the quarter, following stronger retail sales in June.

As it is, the economy appears to have been flat in the second quarter after the bank holiday effect is taken out. But these are still early stage numbers. Compared with a year earlier UK GDP, not adjusting for any bank holiday effect, was down 0.5%, similar to the 0.4% fall for the EU and eurozone. More here.

This post was originally published at David Smith’s EconomicsUK and is reproduced here with permission.

2 Responses to "A Modest GDP Revision"

  1. Frank Renfro   August 27, 2012 at 1:32 pm

    Could you write using proper grammar? The fact is, the revision still showed that the US economy contracted, albeit at a slightly slower rate than previously forecast. Moreover, the revision is statistically insignificant.

  2. jojo   April 24, 2013 at 9:33 pm

    Here, Goddard aptly noted what it is about art that makes us a appreciate dissertation services it–it connects the work, the artist, and ourselves into a seamless unit.