Cash Exiting China

Something that I have thinking about for a few weeks – and was reminded of reading Ryan Avent this morning – is the series of pieces at FT alphaville regarding the outflow of cash from China.  See here and here and here.  The thinking had been that the renminbi was a one-way bet as China […]

Push Comes to Shove

The Spanish banking crisis is forcing another showdown in Europe with the German-led Northern contingent increasingly under siege not just from the South but now from just about everyone else.  Spain is under pressure to finance a bank recapitalization, but worries that that path will push them straight into a Troika bailout program.  And we […]

Another Nail in the Coffin

Ramesh Ponnuru and I have a new article in the National Review that places another nail in the coffin of flexible inflation targeting. Here is the introduction: Twice in the last century, economic turmoil revealed the failure of a monetary regime and forced the West to abandon it for another. During the Great Depression of […]

U.S.-China Trade War in the Offing?

I was on BBC Monday, talking about the latest trade spats developing between the U.S. and China.  Over the past few weeks, the U.S. imposed two distinct sets of retaliatory tariffs on Chinese-made solar panels (and just today, followed up with similar sanctions on Chinese-made wind-turbine towers).  Last Friday, China struck back by asking the […]

A Diabolical Mix: U.S. Wages and European Austerity

What if Europe and the US converged on a set of economic policies that brought out the worst in both – European fiscal austerity combined with a declining share of total income going to workers? Given political realities on both sides of the Atlantic, it is entirely possible. So far, the US has avoided the […]

Strategic Briefing – Will Spain Leave the Euro?

Spain bank fears send bond yields to euro-era high Associated Press | May 30 Investors worried about the viability of Spain’s banks sent the country’s borrowing costs into the danger zone Wednesday and pummeled European stocks, spooked about whether the Spanish government can pay for a bailout of a banking sector saddled with toxic loans […]

Yeah! The Housing Bottom Is Here! (PWBC™)

Ever since the data made it obvious — at least to us — that Housing was topping out in 2006, we have watched with various degrees of bemusement the annual ritual that is the erroneous housing bottom call. Many casual observers of Housing (along with a few pros) fail to understand the difference between monthly […]

Mexico’s Emerging Student Movement Shakes Up Election Dynamics

Amidst a generally dull election season, an incipient social movement calling itself “I’m132” (YoSoy132) is shaking up the presidential campaigns. This decentralized and apparently nonpartisan movement is composed of thousands of students and young people and relies heavily on social media to organize and communicate. Its members appear to be united against what they perceive […]

Despite Its Troubles, the Euro Area Is Making Progress

Yes, the headlines from the euro area are discouraging. The region’s Purchasing of Managers Index (PMI) is falling again—to 45.9 in May, with even German levels down. The European stock markets are down. The euro has slid to 1.25 vs. the dollar, accelerating preparations for a Greek euro exit. No resolutions of the political crisis […]

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