Growing Again

Official industrial production figures for July suggested strongly that the economy is on course for growth in the third quarter. The 0.5% rise in industrial production between June and July left it 0.9% higher than its second quarter average, suggesting a significant relapse would be needed in August and September not to produce quarterly growth.

Manufacturing output rose by 0.8% between June and July and also looks set for quarterly growth, in line with the surveys. Note that these are the Office for National Statistics’ calculations of the monthly changes – when you work them out on the basis of the index numbers, the results are slightly different. More details here.

Originally published at David Smith’s EconomicsUK and reproduced here with the author’s permission.