Quick Hits

Macro Man is a bit pressed this morning, so he’s reduced to offering up a few quick-hit bullet point thoughts:

* It’s a trifle amusing, n’est-ce pas, that despite the well-publicized problems in the PIGS countries and Herr Steinbreuck’s denial of a credit crisis in Germany, the ECB’s contribution to credit easing (the purchase of up to €60 bio of covered bonds) appears to be singularly designed to support German banks while ignoring the “more vulnerable” parts of the Eurozone? !Viva el realpolitik!

* Surprise, surprise, the stress test results were leaked in advance, particularly the one bit of bad news i.e. Bank of America. The US really has turned into a banana republic, hasn’t it?

* Government bonds suddenly look like they’ve got no friends, don’t they? Treasuries barely budged on a strong ten year auction earlier in the week, and sagged markedly to fresh post-QE lows after yesterday’s tepid 30-year auction. Gilts and bunds don’t look much better. Remember when we all thought that the US government was targeting 4.5% 30 year mortgage rates? We’re not far from that level on 30-year Treasury yields! Then again, a high-quality mortgage borrower is probably a better credit risk than Uncle Sam these days…

* Today’s payroll data will be the usual put-luck crapshoot. The only question is whether Minitrue decides to print it at the consensus forecast or the level implied by the ADP. Regardless, it would be churlish not to observe that claims data has improved. The issue from here is whether it’s a secular peak or merely a local one; with auto-sectort job losses likely in the pipeline, risks are still skewed to the latter, a la the beginning of the year. claims.GIF

Originally published at the Macro Man blog and reproduced here with the author’s permission.

2 Responses to "Quick Hits"

  1. Guest   May 10, 2009 at 9:00 am

    Get used to it everything will bebetter if :Looked as less dramatic flows (diminishing)Worse if:Looked as accumulated stocks of bad newseg Unemployment,debts public and privateI focuss on the stocks and when they will level up, then news will be good

    • Imprecator   May 10, 2009 at 11:28 am

      Could’nt have put it better. Would be nice if the Professor could tell us about the second derivative of the just fired/still employed ratio.