IEA’s shadow MPC warns of re-entry risks from quantitative easing

n its latest e-mail poll, the Shadow Monetary Policy Committee (SMPC) unanimously voted to leave UK Bank Rate at ½% when the Bank of England’s rate setters meet on 4th June.The unanimous SMPC vote reflected the belief that there was little case for a rate increase in the near future – despite signs that the lower turning point of the international and domestic business cycles may not be too far off – combined with the view that ½% was close to the effective lower limit where Bank Rate was concerned.

The SMPC had been an early advocate of quantitative easing (QE) and there was a general belief among its members that QE was the ‘least-bad’ option available under current circumstances. Some members of the IEA’s shadow committee thought that the scale of QE would need to be stepped up. Others thought that the current thrust of monetary policy was about right for the time being.

The SMPC also welcomed the Bank of England’s belated publication of a back run of quarterly statistics for ‘core’ M4 broad money, excluding the deposits of other financial corporations, and the Bank’s accompanying announcement that it would resume publication of the table showing the links between public borrowing, funding policy, bank credit and broad money in early June, having previously suspended publication last autumn.

This information was vitally important, given that QE was essentially an attempt to boost ‘core’ M4 using open market operations in the hope that the links between money and activity would then prove tight enough for this to stimulate demand. However, there was concern about the longer-term consequences of present policies. A particular worry was whether it was possible to make a smooth re-entry from QE without provoking either a renewed downturn or losing control of inflation. (More…)

Friday, May 29, 2009

Nationwide says house prices rose in May
Posted by David Smith at 09:00 AM Category: Thoughts and responses

Levels of housing activity still look to be too low to support a rise in house prices but that is what the Nationwide has reported, for the second time in three months. It says prices rose by 1.2% in May, reducing the annual rate of fall from 15% to 11.3%. Limited supply may have pushed prices higher, it says, while stressing that it is too early to call the turn.

It is indeed possible that we are seeing a delayed supply response and that when supply does come on to the market prices will lurch down again. The Halifax index has yet to show convincing signs of a slowing pace of decline, let alone increases. Nonetheless, taking all measures together signs of stabilisation are evident in the data. The Nationwide release is here.

Originally published at About David Smith’s and reproduced here with the author’s permission.