Quick Post on the Oregon Employment Report

I imagine my pessimism is driven in part by the deteriorating local situation.  On March 7, I presented this chart to a meeting of the Oregon Education Association:


A quick forecast, based on monthly nonfarm payroll figures since 2000, indicated that the Oregon job loss for February would be -13,800.  This was a relatively pessimistic forecast, especially compared to the official state forecast, but I thought it was justified given the strong spike in initial unemployment claims at the end of last year.

Today the official numbers were released– nonfarm payrolls in Oregon declined by 21,700.  A number best described as virtually freefall.  The unemployment rate now stands at 10.8%.  Dismal.

For watchers of the local situation, this job report suggests that the state’s revenue forecast for the 2007-2009 biennium remains in doubt, while downward revisions for the next biennium are likely.  Worse, I am increasingly concerned that this recession will soon eat into the forecast for the 2011-2013 biennium.  We are in for a rough ride.

Originally published at Tim Duy’s Fed Watch and reproduced here with the author’s permission.