When I heard that the government was going to give future capital as convertible preferred stock, and perhaps change some of the previous capital injections to convertible preferred, I thought this was a good thing. It would give the taxpayer more upside potential, and it would also give the government the option to take over the banks simply by converting its preferred stock to common whenever it wanted.
But the key in the Silicon Valley example is that the VCs have the option to convert or not. The Treasury Department’s new Capital Assistance Program has this precisely backwards.
Under the new Capital Assistance Program (CAP), the government will invest in banks by buying preferred shares with a 9% dividend. This is like the old Capital Purchase Program (used last fall for the first round of recapitalizations), but with one huge twist. Now the bank, AT ITS OPTION, can choose to convert the preferred shares into common, at 90% of the average closing share price during the 20 days ending on February 9 (the day before the new Financial Stability Plan was “announced”).
An example would probably help here. Let’s say that Bank of America (BAC) needs another $25 billion in capital. The government will give BAC $25 billion in cash, which BAC has to pay back in 7 years (that’s the mandatory conversion date). In the meantime, BAC has to pay 9% interest, or $2.25 billion, per year. But, at any time, BAC can convert any amount of that to common shares, at $5.49 per share. (The average closing price over the 20 days was $6.10.) If it converted $5 billion into common, the government would get about 910 million (5 billion divided by 5.49) common shares, but now BAC only owes the government $20 billion and is paying 9% interest on only $20 billion.
In short, BAC has just sold the government 910 million shares for $5.49 each.
This is called a put option. At any time, BAC can sell (”put”) shares to the government for $5.49, but it never has to. (The convertible shares the Silicon Valley VCs get are like call options; at any time, they can buy common shares by trading in preferred shares, but they never have to.) Having an option is always good.
What will BAC do with this option? If its stock price is above $5.49, it can either do nothing, or it can issue new common shares and sell them to private investors, say at $8. Then it can use that $8 to buy back preferred shares from the government, or just hold onto it. If its stock price falls below $5.49, things get interesting. Then BAC can buy up its shares on the market for, say, $3, and then immediately sell them to the government for $5.49. It won’t get $5.49 in new cash, but it will reduce its debt to the government – because preferred shares that have to be bought back and pay interest are basically debt – by $5.49, which is almost as good.
(This would have the side effect of supporting BAC’s stock price, because it means there is a buyer (BAC) who is theoretically always willing to pay $5.48 for the stock. Ricardo Caballero must be smiling)
In practice, it’s not quite this simple, because the bank will require Treasury’s permission to buy back common shares from other investors. But even if BAC doesn’t buy back any shares, it still has the option – whenever its stock price is below $5.49 – of reducing its debt to the government by $5.49 simply by giving the government a share worth less than $5.49.
What’s wrong with this? Well, nothing, if your goal is to give banks money. What you’ve just done is stick the government with the downside risk – we could get paid back in worthless stock – while the bank shareholders get all the upside potential. You’ve done this by giving the bank, for free, an option that has value. Back of the envelope, Peter thinks this option is worth about 65 cents per dollar of money invested. (It’s worth so much because bank stocks are so volatile these days.) Put another way, for every $10 billion of capital we invest this way, we are giving away another $6.5 billion. I think it’s probably a little less, because the option is not as flexible as the holder would like it to be, but you get the point.
As I’ve said many times before, if you think the banks need money, and you want to give it to them (instead of, say, nationalizing them), just give it to them already. Don’t come up with these ridiculously fancy schemes to hide it. Yesterday Krugman gave Simon and me credit for writing this sentence:
This is another sign of the serious brainpower that has been expended on finding ways to avoid or minimise government ownership of banks, and to avoid the slightest possibility of offending shareholders – shareholders whose shares have positive value primarily because of the expectation of a further government bail-out.
But to tell you the truth, at the time we wrote that I didn’t realize just how much brainpower went into this one.
There are some other worrying things in the term sheet I’ll just touch on here:
- Any qualifying financial institution can get anywhere from 1 to 2% of the value of its assets under this program, simply by asking – even if it doesn’t need it. I guess if you’re going to be giving gifts (free put options) to the banks that need to be saved, you need to be fair and give the same gifts to banks that don’t need to be saved. Banks will need regulatory permission to get more than 2% – a clear sign that getting money under this program is a good thing for banks.
- On top of that 2%, any qualifying financial institution can get additional money under this program in order to retire the preferred stock it sold last fall under the Capital Purchase Program. This means they can take back non-convertible preferred stock and give the government convertible preferred stock instead, with no cash changing hands.The dividend rate on the new stuff is higher (9% vs. 5%), so a bank wouldn’t necessarily do this. But if its stock price is lower than its conversion price (the average price on the 20 days ending on February 9), then it should do the swap, and then immediately convert the preferred into common (so the dividend goes away). That way, instead of owing the government, say, $10 billion and paying interest on it, it can give the government $5 billion worth of common stock instead. (For those asking the obvious question: Citigroup’s conversion price is $3.46. Yesterday it closed at $2.52. You might call this one the “Citigroup clause,” not to be confused with Santa Claus.)
- The convertible preferred stock will have no voting rights. This is hardly surprising, given that the whole point of the exercise is to avoid government control. But it’s by no means necessary. For example, VC firms always get voting rights for their convertible preferred shares.
There are some very clever people in Treasury these days.
Update: Oh, I forgot the most important point. This still does nothing for the asset side of the balance sheet, which is where the big monsters are hiding.
Originally published at the Baseline Scenario and reproduced here with the author’s permission.