The picture says it all, but here’s the quote from RealTime Economics “Fourth Quarter Looking Worse Every Day”:
Yesterday, wholesale inventory numbers came in smaller than expected, prompting economists to revise down fourth-quarter GDP estimates a bit. But a much bigger adjustment is likely in store thanks to today’s data on trade.
The trade deficit for December was wider than anticipated, and economists estimate it will shave up to 0.9 percentage point off of the fourth-quarter number. “These figures were much worse than BEA assumed in preparing the advance fourth quarter GDP estimate,” said Morgan Stanley economist Ted Wieseman, who now expects fourth quarter GDP to be revised down to a 5.2% decline. That figure was in line with other estimates from J.P. Morgan, Macroeconomic Advisers, IHS Global Insight and RDQ Economics, who all expect the number to be around 5%.
I’ve just noticed that according the St. Louis Fed’s “Tracking the Recession” webpage, three of the four NBER BCDC series are now at performing as bad or worse than that in the past six recessions. The sole exception is income, which is at the average level recorded in the past six recessions, at 12 months post-peak.
Originally published at Econbrowser and reproduced here with the author’s permission.