Do Not Read This!

Evidenced by the fact that you re reading this, shows me you do not know how to follow directions.  Great!  You have taken the first step towards independent thought.  I’d like to have a little fun, and take a break from Alt Energy (Chapter 2 is under construction).

Today, I do not plan on answering any questions.  If you have come here for answers… then read no further.  Instead, I am putting you to work.  I have questions, and am looking for audience participation.


Which came first, the chicken or the egg?

Some questions don’t have answers… some do have answers, but can’t be answered because of how we’ve manipulated the perception of the question and answer.  For example:  What is the cause of the US/Middle East conflicts?  Is it because the US invaded Iraq looking “for WMD” and to fight terrorism.  Is it because radical extremists attacked the WTC in 2001?  Is it because Kuwait invasion and subsequent Persian Gulf War?  Is it because US sanctions, and aid in wars between Iran and Iraq?  Is it because US’s position/support of Israel?  …or is it something dating back to WW2 occupations, Ottoman Empires, Crusades, etc…  The answer to this question exists, and many have theories on the answer… but this is a question that just can’t be answered.

How we got to where we are in this financial crisis is the same sort of question.  Who’s to blame?  The Banks, The brokers, the overspent consumer, the ratings agencies, the press, Britney Spears, Wall St, NINJA’s, Bush, Democrats, Trickle Down Reaganomics, Clinton’s burning of the Glass Steagall Act, FASB, Education….   UGGGHHH!!!  It’s exhausting!  …and opinion’s (like mine) aside, there are no answers.  (…ahhh, who am I kidding, it’s David Lareah’s fault!!!)

But where we go from here isn’t the same unanswerable question.  We have the chance to define it.  We can and will rebuild it.  This is what needs to be done, and it will take some time.  We have to ask ALL of the RIGHT questions, and then come up with our most reasonable outcomes.  Some of our answers are right in front of us.  We just don’t do a good job of reading the question.  ..and even if we read the question right, logic can magically be blurred by slight of hand.

Question #1

Tom’s mom had 3 kids.  She named the first child Penny, she named the second child Nickel…    What did she name her third child?

Much like that old trick question, what needs to be done with answering our economic questions are working through the logic of chain rules.

If “x” affects “y”, and then “y” affects “z”…

If “z” affects “y”, and then “y” affects “x”…

If “a” affects “b”, and then “b” affects “c”…

If “c” affects “b”, and then “b” affects “a”…

If “c” affects “y”, and then “y” affects “q”…

…and so forth.

The variables are endless.  But using some basic parameters and logical “affects”, I believe we can come to some reasonable predictions and best suited cures.  I am asking you to come up with the questions that I will try to come up with a massive chain equation for.  I will try my best to have this project done before the end of the year and posted here.

***unrelated – 8 years ago, we placed Bush, Dick and Colin in charge…  No wonder how everything got “screwed” up!  Now I know those are just names… and it doesn’t really mean anything, but I wonder what to now expect from Obama Biden. (c’mon…  I know you’ve all thought this…  If you look at the “Obama Biden” name quickly it looks like something else!  (like on a bumper sticker)  It almost makes you wonder why Obama didn’t pick a running mate with the last name Smith or even better “Caught”.)


Question #2  You come to a fork in the road. At each of the two forks, there stand identical looking men.  One path leads to fountain of youth, the other to death. From the fork, you cannot distinguish between the two paths. Once you start down a path, you can NOT go back. One of the two men always tells the truth. The other man always lies. Unfortunately, it is impossible for you to distinguish between the two men. You have permission to ask one of the men one question, to ascertain which path leads to the fountain of youth. (Remember, you do not know which guard you’re asking.  It could be the truth teller or the liar …and that this single question determines whether you live or die.) The question is: What one question asked of one man guarantees that you are led down the path for the fountain of youth, regardless of which man you happen to ask?

I ask this silly riddle because I find it so similar to the current bailout questions.  Where is the $2 trillion being used?  Where is the $700 being spent?  (I want my Freedom of information act to start ACTING!)

Those are great /valid questions…  but I don’t think they lead us to the fountain of youth.  To see who dies we need to ask the opposite!  Where ISN’T the money going?  Who’s not going to get it?

Those are the real questions that will tell us who will “die”.  (and likely will be the definable answers to who is strong enough to survive on their own and who isn’t deemed “worth saving”.)  Those questions answered will get you the rewards you may seek.


Question #3  If a mirror reverses your right from your left and your left from your right, why doesn’t it also reverse up and down?

I ask this riddle because it reminds me of the irrational markets.  For every seller, there has to be an opposite buyer.  The demand of the seller is what causes them to settle for a lower price.  (likewise, the demand of the buyer raises the price)  …Well that means there had to be someone with money to purchase what the demanding seller was getting rid of.  In order for that buyer to get the cash, he likely had to sell something else.  (thus he created demand selling somewhere else.)  This is and has been a primary focus that I use to analyze the markets.  It is the flow of cash from 1 place to another.

In following the flow, you learn that there is always a mirror.  What’s important to know is that the mirror isn’t reversing up and down and left and right…  but instead forward and backwards!

Thanks for stopping by and reading…  Now it your turn to be heard.

Miss America / Rich Hartmann

p.s  Nouriel Roubini gets a lot of credit for his predictions and the success of the RGE.  I’d just like to point out to the many readers that he could not do this all on his own.  Aside from the effort of the various contributors I would like to thank the staff for all of their hard work. They are the invisible hands behind the curtain which has brought us all together.  Special thanks to Vitoria Saddi, and congrats on your G20 contribution.

58 Responses to "Do Not Read This!"

  1. Hellasious   November 13, 2008 at 8:18 am

    Re: Question # 3In fact, many times “the mirror is crack’d” and markets don’t function at all, or function as ghosts of themselves. And still other times the mirrors are tricky by design: concave, convex or otherwise built to produce a distorted image of reality.Like in Plato’s cave, beware of the puppeteers.Best,H.

    • MA   November 13, 2008 at 9:17 am

      Hell…2 in a row! I am honored that you visited and then came back for more.If any of the RGE readers are not familiar with “Hell as IOUS” work, you should make a point to visit: has been at it almost as long as Nouriel, and has torn apart this crisis with amazing analysis. (and a love of charts)Miss America

      • Vitoria Saddi   November 15, 2008 at 7:59 am

        Thanks. I saw his blog, very good.

  2. Guest   November 13, 2008 at 8:33 am

    Rich, what if there are no buyers but the market makers? Is this why we get failed clearing rallies?

    • Guest   November 13, 2008 at 9:06 am

      oops… this was meant to be a reply:Ultimately… there’s always a buyer… maybe just not a buyer of what’s being sold.You see, If someone is forced to sell, they are raising cash to pay someone. When they pay (at a loss based on bad selling) that person who was paid now has cash. That cash always has to do something. (Banks do something EVERY NIGHT with cash.) That cash keeps FLOWING.If they couldn’t sell, and couldn’t pay, that’s when you get your “Freeze”.AND WE DON’T ALLOW FREEZES! So there is always a buyer. (freezes happen when there is no cash. Sure, you can get technical and say hording causes the freezes… but that’s not your real cause for freezes.)Current injections have maintained that flow.Reply to this comment By MA on 2008-11-13 09:02:43

  3. MA   November 13, 2008 at 9:02 am

    Ultimately… there’s always a buyer… maybe just not a buyer of what’s being sold.You see, If someone is forced to sell, they are raising cash to pay someone. When they pay (at a loss based on bad selling) that person who was paid now has cash. That cash always has to do something. (Banks do something EVERY NIGHT with cash.) That cash keeps FLOWING.If they couldn’t sell, and couldn’t pay, that’s when you get your “Freeze”.AND WE DON’T ALLOW FREEZES! So there is always a buyer. (freezes happen when there is no cash. Sure, you can get technical and say hording causes the freezes… but that’s not your real cause for freezes.)Current injections have maintained that flow.

  4. OuterBeltway   November 13, 2008 at 11:22 am

    MARGE Braintrust Conference call is in the works. See today’s Roubini posts for the protocol.Do not follow the directions.

  5. Guest   November 13, 2008 at 11:25 am

    MAPoint/Question #3: Mish argues similarly to you and ties it to the fallacy of ‘sideline cash’. However, I disagree with both of you not in mathematical terms, but in logic terms. Mathematically it works just as you both say, but the reality is which side of the transaction harbors the greater fool. Many times actual cash was not used to buy securities (margin). Therefore, if the seller was not levered more ‘sideline cash’ is available. Other times, buying is done because of program trades (indexes need to be tracked). The only thing that can be derived from such an undertaking is to determine where there are rising and falling prices. The assumption is that rising prices represent new directional opportunities while falling prices represent passe opportunities. It’s like determining which way the cattle are headed by monitoring the dust cloud. Yes, it gives you great coarse information, but it in no way tells you that the cattle are headed for the cliff! Had they not turned left back there, they may have found that the river was straight ahead.My point being that the smart ones use radar the dumb ones follow the popcorn trail assuming the ones leaving the popcorn were the smart ones!Point/Question #2: You say

    Where is the $2 trillion being used? Where is the $700 being spent? (I want my Freedom of information act to start ACTING!)Those are great /valid questions… but I don’t think they lead us to the fountain of youth. To see who dies we need to ask the opposite! Where ISN’T the money going? Who’s not going to get it?Those are the real questions that will tell us who will “die”. (and likely will be the definable answers to who is strong enough to survive on their own and who isn’t deemed “worth saving”.) Those questions answered will get you the rewards you may seek.

    There is no philosophical difference to your view of the proper question. If you have an Exclusive Group A and an Exclusive Group B which when combined represent the Total C, then if C is obvious and you know A or B you automatically know the other. In other words, if they won’t tell you who is getting the $ you can’t possibly know who isn’t getting the $.Secondly, the assumption that those not getting $ will die is dis-ingenious. Sure some will die, but more than likely those not getting money are those who aren’t looking for it. They aren’t looking for it because they have it and are operating on a sound foundation and will continue to do so when the dust clears. For example (not perfect), Berkshire-Hathaway is as much a ‘financial institution’ as AIG ever was, but I’ guarantee you they haven’t directly received any bailout money. Furthermore, they won’t be forced to either. Anyone who believes that healthy companies are being forced to take bailout money so as to screen the laggards, I’ve got moon rocks to sell to you!As always I value your insight! … I just see it a little differently today.

    • Guest   November 13, 2008 at 12:57 pm

      “directly received any bailout money” so what have they indirectly received tax exemptions?

      • 2cents   November 13, 2008 at 1:18 pm

        They haven’t received anything directly to themselves or companies they own outright. However, other companies they are invested in have received both direct and indirect benefits.

    • MA   November 13, 2008 at 1:28 pm

      Thanks guest. I appreciate your insight, but disagree regardless.I have a first hand look at leverage.Most often leverage cash may run 30x its investors total asset base. Scary right??? Maybe, Maybe not. You see, typically of the 30x money, 15x have gone in 1 direction, while 15x went in the opposite direction. The net is the profit/loss, and healthy risk management (which now has a premium placed on it) plays the spread. (That’s where counterparty risk comes into play, and why they need to (as I’ve stated in the past) and are creating central regulatory and clearers to monitor CP Risk.)MA

  6. Hazleton   November 13, 2008 at 11:55 am

    @MAAll of this is WAY over my head. Looking forward to future interpretations.

  7. PKB   November 13, 2008 at 11:56 am

    The EGG had to come before the CHICKEN, because an egg was an egg, before a chicken was a chicken. To understand this logic, you must first accept the theory of evolution – that complex organisms evolve from simpler organisms – that complex organs evolve from simpler organs. If you are a creationist, then my arguments cannot shed light for you and you are relegated to pondering the original question.Organisms that evolved with the capability of vision had to first develop a light sensistive spot. Over much time and random recombinations of DNA, the light sensitive spot developed into a useful complex organ that benefited the organisms survival and reproduction. Similarly, a chicken had to evolve from an existing lower level organism, perhaps a lizard like creature without feathers. The lower level creature recombined its DNA with the help of an egg like structure, which, over much time and random recombinations of DNA began to look like a chicken. Thus, dialing back the evolutionary tree, the egg was an egg, long before a chicken was a chicken.Or maybe, I just need another shot of Tequila!PKB

    • MA   November 13, 2008 at 1:17 pm

      That’s too funny. I really didn’t think anyone would actually try to crack the chicken/egg question. What’s even funnier is that I’m 100% opposite you because of my evolutionary theories. It just shows how amazingly diverse our brains all are.Real quick I’ll share my theory… I believe the “egg” was an evolutionary step. Mother natures version of a test tube baby. I believe from the amoeba forward, splitting and then eventually copulating were natural courses of evolution. I believe all wombs are essentially eggs, and at some point, evolution decided it was better for particular species to no longer keep their womb inside… so they evolved into laying eggs.Thus… the chicken came firstMiss America

      • Anonymous   November 13, 2008 at 2:18 pm

        No way. Primitive creatures are rather into eggs, not wombs, so if chicken are not some rare evolutionary U-turn, the egg came first.

      • Guest   November 13, 2008 at 2:54 pm

        A chicken is a very effective means by which an egg makes another egg.

    • Guest   November 13, 2008 at 1:23 pm

      but the organisms waste products are more interesting then firguring out who is on first.

      • MA   November 13, 2008 at 1:30 pm

        What’s on second!:)MA

      • PKB   November 13, 2008 at 1:59 pm

        I agree…back to ALTERNATIVE ENERGY…and it’s realtion to POOP. Methane gas that is discharge from cattle poop and released into the atmosphere is 23 times more harmful to the Ozone layer than carbon. So E3 has developed and colocated a closed loop biofuel plant next to a cattle feed lot and then collects cattle poop to capture the methane gas (which burns very cleanly) and uses it as an energy source to produce ethanol. The ethanol feedstock is wetmilled corn (also colocated next to the biofuel plant), which is processes into ethanol beer and the wet residual is fed to the livestock. The dried poop now free of methane and full of plant fiber is then tilled back into the dirt as fertilizer. E3 production costs at this plant are among the lowest in the industry and least harmfull to the environment.Back to evolution…could it have been all that methane in the dinosaur poop that caused the global warming of the jurassic period???…;^)PKB

        • MA   November 13, 2008 at 2:52 pm

          NO SHIT!Quite interesting. Why not harness our poop. We do it on a bowl and send it to the factory.No more wasting waste!Jokes aside, it is interesting.MA

          • Guest   November 13, 2008 at 3:56 pm

            symbotic relationship brought huge change —>Oxygen

  8. grower   November 13, 2008 at 1:03 pm

    Question #2, asked of either man “which road would the other man say leads to the fountain of youth” lie + truth or truth + lie will always lead to the wrong road.

    • MA   November 13, 2008 at 3:27 pm

      I don’t know if this is what you are saying… but here’s the answer to Question #2 (skip this if you plan to try yourself)The point of this riddle was to do the “opposite” like look at who the money “isn’t” going to. The answer is found with a negative indicator.Let’s say path A leads too the fountain of youth.Let’s say path B leads too Death.The Liar will tell you path B, the truth teller will tell you path A.Regardless of whom you ask (truth teller or liar) you do the opposite of the answer to this simple question:You ask either the liar or the truth teller: “Which way will the other man tell me leads to the fountain of youth?”If you asked the truth teller he will tell you path B (because that’s true)If you asked the liar he will tell you path B (because he knows the truth teller will say path A but instead he has to lie and says path B)So in doing opposite of either answer, you go down path A.Do you people see the parallels???Bernake, Paulson, Bush, etc… Have to lie when asked about where the $700billion & $2trillion! Think independently to help draw conclusions!!!Miss America

      • Michael   November 13, 2008 at 5:23 pm

        And thus you get to the heart of why we never get useful answers to our questions directed to financiers and politicians: Your solution to Question #2 requires a correct assumption that both A and B know what the other would say if asked (even though your original statement of the question did not include that assumption, or even discuss that issue, so I would have no basis for believing that such an assumption is in fact correct). Thus, I am back where you started me, not knowing which path leads where. Hiding assumptions and manipulating information are at the center of so many financial and political processes that it is never a simple discovery of “the truth” but rather a complex assessment of the many possible outcomes of the many hidden actions disguised by all the heavy B.S.

    • Anonymous   December 6, 2008 at 12:28 pm

      Gee, and I thought I would simply ask one of them to define / describe a lie.

  9. Guest   November 13, 2008 at 1:29 pm

    question #2 Both men are liars- there is no fountain of youth- we are all headed for the same fate- don’t ask them anything instead ask yourself why you ever believed in the fountain of youth to begin with? You are self deceived ,get off that road before it’s too late.

    • Ponce   November 13, 2008 at 2:40 pm

      You may ask either man whether his path leads to the fountain of youth. A truth teller will tell you that his path leads not to the fountain; the liar will tell you his path leads to the fountain; he is a liar because no fountain exists. The assumption that both men are liars is not warranted. Or, a third possibility, the two men could go into business together and produce an infomercial offering information that “they” don’t want you to know about.

      • pandre1971   November 13, 2008 at 9:54 pm

        That incorrect. Since the fountain of youth does not exist, liar can say that either path leads to the fountain, including one that leads to death, and be still true to his trade. Unfortunately, you may end up dead with such a question.

    • Guest   November 13, 2008 at 3:57 pm

      another possibility- ask yourself which is more beneficial the fountain of youth or death?You can live forever in a corrupted world or you can be transported to the next? which is better? It depends on what truth is?

  10. Guest   November 13, 2008 at 4:06 pm

    all -true -ismpast disadvantaged +presently disadvantaged + future disadvantaged > advantagedbottoms up

  11. Octavio Richetta   November 13, 2008 at 5:10 pm

    MA hope this is the kind of post you are looking for…Question #3 If a mirror reverses your right from your left and your left from your right, why doesn’t it also reverse up and down?A lens reverses the image on the other side of the lens left and right AND up and down because the light changes direction as it passes through the lens. A mirror actually does not reverse anything just reflects the light. Whereas our definitions of up and down are absolute, the definition of left and right depends on the direction we are facing. Your right side seems to be in the left side “inside” the mirror because you mentally are positioning yourself inside the mirror taking a mental 180o turn which is impossible because you will never be inside a mirror:-) But wait! what happens if you place the mirror in the ceiling and then look up?:-)Where is the money going?Certainly the flow towards banks holding mortgages will be lower than anticipated and banks in the business of selling cc debt such as amex will get more money than anticipated due to Hanks sudden change in strategy.BTW, Hanks 700 billion ripoff of the Amerikan public (700 truckloads of gold carrying 40.5 metric tons of gold each) belongs to the guinness records as the greatest heist in the history of mankind! Hanky is a clever guy! He made an excellent “chess” move:He knew the US economy would go down the drain with or without the 700 billion so congress only had one way out: approve the plan BEFORE the election.Since the economy would go down the drain with or without the 700 billion, if congress didn’t approve the 700 billion, in the future and with the benefit of knowing what happened, people could say it was their fault the economy went down the tubes as the 700 billion might have saved it or at the very least soften the recession (error of omission). However, by aproving the plan they can always say they tried their best and that it would have been worse with the plan.So hanky got what he wanted: a big wad of cash BEFORE the election, which as you all can see, he is “wasting” freely among his friends. he only has until January to waste it all so he is devising the fastest ways to give it away to his friends. The mortgage buy back stuff would have taken too long as the toxic stuff is impossible to price.A very reasonable 1% commission easily makes Hank a billionaire if he is not one already:-)Don’t get fooled by the Stuttering, Hank is smarter than all of us put together!

    • Michael   November 13, 2008 at 5:46 pm

      Octavio,The most disturbing thing about all of the actions now collectively called “the bailouts,” commencing with Bear Stearns and including the TARP fiasco is their horrifying similarity to the post-9/11 descent into national security hell and pre-emptive war. In both cases, crises (extremely undesirable things which can and do happen but for which we are not adequately prepared) were used to manipulate everyone’s fear, take unilateral action on the part of the executive branch and its appointees – most of it to be kept eternally secret, overwhelm a timid and stupid Congress into acquiescence with drastic action and excessive expansion of executive power, and then switch the whole process and its supposed justifications at will to give the process a life of its own unrelated to the original alleged purposes. “National Security Threat” = “Financial Extreme Exigency.” When will we ever learn?

      • OR   November 13, 2008 at 5:52 pm

        Excellent points! It is interesting to see that even though bothcandidates opposed doing things in such a haste, they were forced to approve the plan due to political reasons.

        • MA   November 14, 2008 at 12:04 am

          Actually OR… A mirror reflects depth. It is the depth that is reversed. Point at the mirror. Your finger is the furthest point from your eye. …but in the mirror image, it is the closest thing.So it reverses forward and backward. Thus my relevance to the flow of money back and forth.Miss America – aciremA ssiM

  12. Guest-O-Rama   November 13, 2008 at 8:03 pm

    So where is the money going?A. Its going to convince others to hop on and buy so people who bought before can get out. Its a big Bear Trapola so hedgies and such can keep unwinding and pay off their debts…Tomorrow or Monday we’ll see another big crash…or B. Its going into stocks because at least stocks will have the potential to make money in the long run which is more than you can say for T Bills given that it might be that the jig is finally up and more than we can say for munis given the impending crashes of state and local government budgets (the Buffet approach)or C. It was just automatic buying-as a fed I just got paid today-is it possible that everyone in the government who’s a passive investor got paid today too and they just have things set up to buy the C fund so you get a big thursday rush of buying (really I have no idea but timingwise it makes sense)?or There’s finally more dollars sloshing around the system because of the bailout so someone’s borrowed to invest in so called bargains…Guest-O-Rama (who is too young to be so cynical but is cynical because she cares and has a Ph.D. but never ever took an economics class-ain’t liberal arts grand?)

    • Guest-O-Rama   November 13, 2008 at 8:52 pm

      P.S. I said the last part so folks would beware not to follow any of my musings because probably they’re all wrong.Oh Rich I have another idea: the Rich of the Oil Rich Nations are raising cash since their markets are imploding. So they sold S&P like crazy driving to raise cash to live off and that drove the price of the S&P way down which prompted hedgies to go on a little buying binge which then fed on itself with the shorts starting to cover…..Notice Kuwait closed until the 17th and Russia’s stock market’s crashing big time.

  13. K. Ackermann   November 14, 2008 at 1:58 am

    An engineer is driving his train through a narrow canyon. He rounds a curve and sees that 3 people are hopelessly trapped. He cannot slow down in time. His only option is to throw a switch onto a side track where only 1 person is hopelessly trapped.Should he throw the switch?A surgeon has 3 patients in dire need of different organ transplants. Their death is imminent. The surgeon is currently taking out the appendix of a different patient when it occurs to him that this patient is a perfect donor match for the other three.What should he do?If the surgeon’s name was Hank Paulson, what did he do?

    • Guest   November 14, 2008 at 3:27 pm

      he starts a bidding war and it goes to the wealthiest

  14. Free Tibet   November 14, 2008 at 7:32 am

    In our ignorance we go our own direction, blindly, without a view to how that affects anybody but ourselves. Confident in our ability to surmount any obstacle. Until we fall. And we ask, what happened? How did we get here? Who is responsible? Dumb questions.A better question, where do we go from here? I can’t answer that in any detail in the comment section of a blog. But here’s an outline.Globalization produced a business model in which off-shoring production was to yield savings which we hoped would be used to the benefit of all. It didn’t. The savings were squandered on consumptive non-tradable sectors of the rich economies. Few benefited. Actually, very few.Our financial system failed us. It failed to make the appropriate investments. Bailouts of the affected institutions are not a total solution. It might get them out of deep trouble temporarily, but will not keep them out when fundamental institutions do not allow global integration. And there is a substantial risk that it is already too big to bail.Required will be major changes to social institutions; banking, government, labor unions, and corporations. Any analysis of future growth must include an appraisal of the political chances of that. We are all hopeful that a new administration will make that possible. But it is all too likely that reform of the respective finance systems will stop at recapitalizing banks and solving bankruptcies. That reform will not be sufficient to close the revolving govt/lobbyist door and restrain large corporate conglomerates. Labor reform will not allow corporations needed flexibility and given those anticipated levels of reform, the prospects for sustained growth are fragile.Nevertheless something can be done on a micro scale. Each of us has the ability and the choice to choose our own paths and make our own investments. Choose yours carefully. Use your time wisely. You are not required to facilitate a failed enterprise.

  15. Sean   November 14, 2008 at 1:58 pm

    Miss America or Rich,”Which came first, the chicken or the egg?”Well, last year there was a conclusion to this philosophical question.Answer?Drum RollllvvvvvvvvvvIt’s Egg.Logically it is very simply. Whatever was in the egg, it was fixed genetically already. However, the adults animals that mate, they can differ in genetics and therefore, create a new specie of off-spring.Chicken must therefore originate from egg, no other paths exist. Whatever is in the egg is what comes out.

    • MA   November 14, 2008 at 2:26 pm

      “Conclusion”ha.Was this “conclussion” made on a FOX program or CNN.There is no definative proof either way,Assuming the amoeba is the base origin of life…. Then splitting happened first. As the larger and larger evolved organisms came to be… their style and forms of reproducing changed. After conception, the gestation period would eventually take place. As to whether the evolution of that gestation period happened internally (womb) or externally (egg), it regardless came from the organism from which it was conceived.…thus, chicken first.Or so I believe…Miss America

      • MA   November 14, 2008 at 2:32 pm

        As I say this… (and believe it) …I do not take away any credit from the fact that the egg could’ve come first for very similar reasons to which you state……but it’s just my opinion the othe other way around.

        • Guest   November 14, 2008 at 3:46 pm

          CaCO3 = sea

  16. blindman   November 14, 2008 at 6:10 pm

    jello,is this thing on?

  17. blindman   November 14, 2008 at 6:10 pm

    jello,is this thing on?

  18. blindman   November 14, 2008 at 8:25 pm

    for the third time,the question is which came first? the chicken or the borrowing on the speculation of a fertilized egg resulting in the hatching of a chicken? someone once warned “don’t count your chickens before they are hatched”, but now speculators think it their priveledge to count unfertilized unlaid eggs and unhatched chickens as theirs to be counted and borrowed against. system failure due to elimination of the reserve requirement necessary in a fiat currency fractional reserve lending system. simply organized crime, fraud, at the top. undetectable due to the nature and source of the crime.

  19. publicly alone   November 15, 2008 at 1:27 pm

    origin —-link —- nigiroholism;^)

    • Guest   November 16, 2008 at 11:51 am

      pa,what is this mysterious origin link?

      • Guest   November 19, 2008 at 6:52 pm


        • blindman   November 20, 2008 at 8:33 pm


  20. publicly alone   November 15, 2008 at 1:27 pm

    origin —-link —- nigiroholism;^)

  21. Cherubim of Inferno   November 15, 2008 at 8:36 pm

    As to evolution, I can see how by physics and chemistry inert lipid membranes might form, and how by the energizing of sunshine radiation random molecules could be induced to random movement. But where comes the ability to direct that motion to good purpose, where comes the direction of mass and energy to create the simplest organelle within the smallest one cell creature, wherein comes the symbiosis and synergy of multiple organelles which combine to form a free functioning cell body? And without deep dwelling upon all the physical constraints and environmental/atmospheric delicacies which can host primitive life subject to the confines of our atomic periodicity, gravity, and molecular bonding abilities, game theory suggests that even primitive organisms compete for scarce resources. Ultimately in the quest for self advancement, they out-compete, marginalize, or destroy competitors…even in environments where self-preservation requires collusion.Evolution only gains mindshare by positing that evolutionary changes in genetic creatures occurs only over the most glacial of time periods. Therefore it cannot be observed in any lifetime or even millenia. The leap from dead organic or chemically complex matter to organically based lifeforms with power of thought, self direction, and innumerably complex systems for preserving self existence is beyond scientific explanation. Every living organism on Earth lives by virtue of reproducing beyond a single generation’s life cycle, they replicate via DNA and RNA transcriptions. Every living entity on the planet has similar replicating code. All life exists because the language of life is deposited in the genes and chromosomes. 4 amino acids make all the chains. Variations upon that code or wording is what makes for the magnificent spectrum of living organisms.What prime mover deposited that special code which molds all life and each being so hard to form? Explain how the building blocks common to the entire universe focussed so especially upon this planet, and how sunshine, wind, water, and energy could devise the GATTACA, devise it to replicate, devise it to continually improve in the face of entropy, harness enthalpy, moderate Ph, form differing structures solid-liquid-gas, evolve basic to complex machine language. How could they progress layer upon layer upon layer in multiplicities and incalculable matrices of convolutions? How could they self-posit survival algorithms, test them, live to apply them, improve-refine-and perfect them? Times this by untold millions.How to self create a complex organism which has multi-dimensional, multi-billion permutations of functions which can host all said functions while self-cleansing from atomic, molecular, organ, system, body-wide scales to maintain life?Any wise man who lingers long over such questions would quickly admit the limitations of the mind to grasp a modicum of life/existence. Creation/Evolution fail in their very simplistic approaches and attempts at provenance.The mystery of how very, very simple appearances are underpinned with complexity that defies any autopsy of any mind.Mankind is endowed with amazing senses to interpret the world around him. What senses does he lack that would change his whole perspective, his whole ability to perceive his physical home? More than waveforms outside the window of human sight, hearing, touch, more than the smallest reductions of atom or its particles, more than the huge vastness of galaxy or universe.With the limited tools man has yet, it is the ultimate hubris to deduce any postulation. Adherents of creation or evolution have only scratched the surface of the understanding of nature. Better to be a searcher, always seeking greater truth and knowledge, than to believe oneself possessing much in the way of answers.

  22. blindman   November 16, 2008 at 9:34 pm

    ok,tom’s mom had 3 kids. let me try this one. i sayxyz, dollar, but then there is the “tom” clue?anyway, i really don’t understand what is wrong with the george mcgovern, sarah palin (alaska), leap year solution. you know the calendar had a problem so the astronomers and farmers got together, right. they came up with leap year, just throw a day in there every four years and everything works out well enough. this is the essence of the solution.the treasury should just send every taxpayer say $10,000. ala george mcgovern and sara palin. and then just forget that it isn’t leap year. or if it is that’s even better. why $10,000. i don’t know? the same reason that tarp is 700 billion. except the 10 grand will go right into the economy one way or another, immediately and democratically. seriously.the chinese won’t mind, the indians won’t care. they should do the same thing. they have leap year too.? the germans and british might object but they will come around. the dollars will probably end up in their banks before next leap year anyway. sure it doesn’t solve the entire deleveraging problem but it is, i think, a good start.

  23. Guest   November 20, 2008 at 1:17 pm

    so ford factories in brazil automation/supplies all under one roof producing cars at such frequencies and efficiencies …trade wars ?

  24. Kate K   November 21, 2008 at 6:22 am

    Fountain of youth questionIt appears that if you ask either man this question, you will know who is the liar: “If I take this path can I turn back?”, the liar will respond “yes” (a lie) and the truth teller will respond “no” (true).