Brazil: Back to the Guilds?

There is a proposal in the National Congress to amend the law regulating medical schools by adding an additional requirement to the overall curriculum. According to the proposal, students who finish medical school would still have to pass a proficiency exam in order to start practicing medicine. The additional exam would be proctored by the […]

ECB forecast change: refi rate to fall to 3% by mid-2009

with Marco Valli ● We have turned more negative on the eurozone and we revised downward our growth forecast for this year and next to take into account the worsened global scenario. ● We now forecast only 1.5% GDP in 2008 and 1.6% in 2009, down from 1.9% and 2.1% previously expected. Sub-par expansion will […]

Will Brazil decouple from the US slowdown?

In the current financial turmoil experienced by the world economies, one very important question posed by analysts and policymakers alike is whether emerging markets, such as Brazil, will be able to decouple from the US slowdown. The aim of this article is to point out ten issues, regarding this decoupling concern and, on top of […]

No Credit Crunch in the Euro Area?

Eurointelligence this moring reports the following from the Frankfurter Allgemeine: “A cooldown yes, but no recession for the euro area In its monthly economic report, Frankfurter Allgemeine writes that an increasingly probable US recession would affect the euro area economy, but would not lead to a recession over here. One argument is the still continued […]

Argentina has the chance to change its long-term growth for good—the appropriate use of fiscal expenditures

The global economy is not looking promissory for 2008. The U.S. is either going to experience a slowdown or a recession. The Fed is expected to cut interest rates further while the government pencils the details of its fiscal stimulus package. These measures point to soften the downturn of the business cycle. Over time, however, […]

Brazil: Rethinking the 2008 Outlook

Latin America’s economic outlook for 2008 is increasingly uncertain, caught somewhere in a no-man’s land between last year’s quiet complacency about decoupling and last week’s panicky market sell-off and fears of a return to the 1990s-style crises. Concern about the economic outlook for Latin America is natural because a good part of the region’s recent […]

Davos: The surprising return of global macropolicies

Roughly ten days ago, I discussed the differences in the policy debates concerning fiscal stimulus on both sides of the Atlantic in this blog, stating that there is an enormous intellectual gap between the European and US debates. While US economists are becoming increasingly comfortable with using discretionary fiscal policies to stabilize the economic cycle, […]

Peru Imports Inflation (Calculation Ideas from Argentina)

Rampant inflation in basic foodstuffs is not a worry to the government of Alan Garcia, it seems. According to respected local newspaper “La Republica”, shoppers have seen prices for chicken rise by 11%, cooking oil by 21%, rice by 7.7%, sugar by 22% and pastas by between 13% and 20%, all in just one week. […]

Crime in Latin America

I write this from Australia, where I am chairing a table on crime in Latin America as part of the GDN Eighth Annual Conference. According to economic theory, criminals respond to the same incentives as any other worker, comparing possible profits against the risk of being punished. In the study that Rodrigo Soares, a professor […]

Recessions: Past and Future

Since the 1960s the world went through 4 “recessions” (see Chart; I use quotation marks, because in no case there was negative growth at the world level, although the cycles are clear): in 1974/75, 1980/82, 1991/93, and 2001/02. Each one of those was associated with a recession in the US (but there were two US […]

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