Urbanization Cannot Explain China’s Imbalanced Growth Model

In the latest example of what we have dubbed “the most over-hyped theme in emerging markets,” the Carnegie Endowment’s Yukon Huang defends China’s imbalanced growth model as a natural consequence of rapid urbanization in an FT Alphavile guest post. He writes, “urbanization largely explains both the decline in labor’s share of income and the increase […]

Canada: Of Resource Investment and ‘Net Benefit’s

Two important pieces of news for the Canadian resource sector were announced today, both reference in some way the “net benefit” clause for investment in Canada, one at a national level (Nexen-CNOOC), the other at a provincial (National Gateway pipeline review), both important to Canadian and global resource supply chains. First, the proposed takeover of Nexen […]

India Is Likely to Move Out of Policy Logjam

The last few months of Pranab Mukherjee (India’s prime Presidential candidate now) being at the helm of India’s Ministry of Finance has been tumultuous, to say the least. Maybe, not as much for him but surely for the economy, as a whole. Not that the entire blame lies at his doors. The global economy continued […]

Philippines: Reconciling Short-Circuiting Electronic Exports

The situation for Philippine exports is particularly dire, with the value of exports falling by 20.7% y/y in December 2011 after reaching a two-year low in September amid persistent weakness in external demand for the country’s electronic goods (Figure 1). Export growth contracted for its eight consecutive month, while electronic exports contracted for its eleven […]

Reliance on Commodity Exports and Elevated NZD Highlight Industry Headwinds

The Bloomberg Correlation-Weighted Index shows that the NZD has appreciated by 3.56% over the past year, sustained by New Zealand’s economy outperforming many other advanced economies. The rising currency is providing benefits to some sectors to the economy, while posing challenges to other sectors. The high NZD is having the most effect pushing agricultural commodity […]

A Relative Decline: Challenging But Not Terminal

A reply to FP’s Clyde Prestowitz Blogpost 1 and Blogpost 2 Points 1-3, While I agree that US infrastructure is sub-par given its riches, comments about “manufacturing workforce dying off” and hand-wringing that services and healthcare being dead-ends are dead-wrong. Prestowitz is right that we should have a big fiscal push and an industrial policy […]

Will Emerging Asia Continue to Fuel New Zealand’s Recovery?

Record high commodity prices are supporting the economy as it recovers from a swath of deadly earthquakes to strike New Zealand in 80 years. Even while New Zealand’s currency has appreciated around 18% against the USD this year, emerging market (EM) demand for commodities (logs, dairy, and meat) continues to soar, which is benefiting New […]

Retail Sector Drives Robust Chilean Growth

Chilean economic activity continued to charge to the upside in March, surprising with a 7.2% y/y (6.76% three-month moving average, 3MMA) gain—markets and RGE were expecting a 6.3% y/y increase. According to the central bank’s (BCCh) communiqué, the retail sector led growth dynamics and the fruit, forestry, fishing and transport services subsectors helped on the upside. In seasonally adjusted (SA) terms, economic activity grew 0.4% m/m, slowing from 1% m/m in January and taking the 3MMA to 0.5% m/m from 0.8% m/m.

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