For LatAm, QE3 Impact on Financial Risk Is Key

The Fed’s QE3 will have varying effects by country in LatAm; however, there are a few broad strokes that color the region. QE3 comes at a moment when growth is weak across the board and policy action is widely needed. What QE3 signifies for LatAm, in this context, is not only related to the added […]

QE3: Buoying the GCC

The Economonitor’s QE3 week is perfect timing as we’ve been thinking a lot about the effects of the latest bouts of global monetary stimulus on the Middle East and North Africa – as summarized in part of our omnibus MENA quarterly presentation. We argue there that even though EMs and to a lesser extent frontier […]

Food Inflation in India—The Government Has to Act and Not Hope

Inflation, especially food inflation, in India remains essentially a government monopoly. Surprised? What I mean is that high food inflation is the cause of faulty government policies that has a distortionary effect on prices. Given the elevated level of food prices in urban India, the common perception is that urban inflation is higher than rural […]

The Likelihood of BoJ Easing Next Week

The Fed’s Thursday easing announcement paves the way for the BoJ to announce its own asset purchase program expansion at next week’s policy meeting, in line with our previous view. There are certainly risks to this call: Just today the government released machine orders data showing a far more resilient July than expected, and earlier […]

Mr. Draghi, Mr. Arnault, and Europe’s Gordian Knot

What does the ECB bond purchase program announced by Mario Draghi last Thursday have to do with French billionaire Bernard Arnault’s application for Belgian citizenship on Saturday? Both reflect a Gordian knot at the heart of the European Union that makes relatively straightforward solutions to the crisis elusive. This Gordian knot is, in turn, the […]

Japan: Inflation Expectations and Real Interest Rates

There is evidence that inflation expectations are firmly moving into positive territory after languishing below zero following the onset of the global financial crisis. The 7y breakeven has stabilized at around 0.53% over the past couple of weeks, after averaging -1.1% from December 2008 to December 2011. This jump has helped move the 7y real […]

Has Fiscal Policy Been Tried?

Jeffrey Sachs in yesterday’s FT A-List argues that “spending has been sizeable…the structural fiscal expansion was more than 4 per cent of GDP on a sustained basis during 2009-11… Fiscal stimulus, in short, has been tried, but did not succeed in spurring a robust recovery.” But reading further into why this fiscal effort failed, he […]