Fed’s Tapering Decision Bears Out RGE’s Out-of-Consensus Call

NEW YORK—18 September 2013—Roubini Global Economics (RGE), an independent, global macroeconomics and strategy research firm, highlights its out-of-consensus call that the U.S. Federal Reserve would not “taper” the pace of quantitative easing at its September policy meeting, an assessment confirmed by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) in a statement today. RGE first expressed this […]

Why Did Brazil Underperform its Peers in 2012? Policy.

The end of Q4 brought forward interesting dynamics in the LatAm region: Namely, a sharp deceleration in inflation in every inflation-targeting economy, with the exception of Brazil (although we expected inflation to soothe by year-end in Mexico, Chile and Peru, the deceleration was much stronger than anticipated, and downward revisions to our inflation forecasts could […]

Do New Laws and Budgets Automatically Supercede Old Laws and Debt Ceilings? A Legal Q&A

RGE Senior Manager of Research David Nowakowski sits down to discuss how new legislation is reconciled with older laws with attorney David Mollow, presenting implications for the debt ceiling, government borrowing and trade law. Nowakowski: If a law is passed that contradicts existing law, but does not directly make a reference to the current law being […]

The Romney Recovery of 2003-06

One of the most popular complaints of Barack Obama’s stewardship of the economy centers on the argument that bad government policies are responsible for the weak recovery we’ve had since the financial crisis. Many Romney supporters—including John Taylor, who is also one of Romney’s economic advisers—have pointed out that previous episodes of large contractions in […]

Continued Reliance on Remittances Stress the Need for Phillipines to Focus on Domestic Job Creation

In 2010, remittances accounted for 10% of GDP totaling a record high US$18.8 billion (+8.2% y/y). Remittances provide an integral crutch for domestic consumption (77% of GDP), since they tend to be used to fund education, health-care, and household expenses for family members. Strong consumer spending helped the economy grow 7.3% y/y in 2010 and […]

Reversing the Decline of Late Stage Capitalist Societies: Japan and the U.S.

Late stage capitalist societies like Japan and the U.S. already have the capacity to produce more than enough of the basic goods needed for our biological survival – such as food and shelter. The production of basic goods has become so efficient that we need fewer and fewer people to work to provide them. But at the same time, the population has grown because of such efficient, mass production. Because job creation and wage growth didn’t keep up with rising living costs – leading to lifestyle changes such as the two-income family, post-baby boom families got smaller, closing off a demographic bubble that will soon become a national budgetary headache. In essence, Japan and the U.S. have become victims of their own success.

The Female Factor for Growth in LatAm

March 8 marks 100 years since the first International Women’s Day. Over the past few decades, Latin America has made significant advances on gender equality. As proof of that trend, the rate of female participation in the labor force has increased to nearly 57% in 2009 from 35% in 1980. In addition, participation gains can be traced across all sectors: Less than 30% of the increase of women in the labor force is directly linked to the expansion of sectors traditionally dominated by women, such as education and health. Moreover, women’s earnings have increased by more than 10%, and their share of overall household income ranges from 30% in Costa Rica to over 60% in Jamaica. Compared with other regions, LatAm also has a higher rate of female entrepreneurship and a smaller gap between male and female entrepreneurs.

RGE’s Wednesday Note – Jasmine Dreams in China?

The “days of rage” sweeping through the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) have raised questions about the possibility of a similar movement erupting in China. At a glance, the ingredients for uprising appear to be present. Online calls for a “Jasmine Revolution” in China resulted in a massive staging of security forces at the planned protest sites, which could be taken as a sign of the Communist Party’s insecure grip on power. Like several of the MENA governments, China’s ruling elite is plagued by corruption and is preparing for a transfer of power. Inequality has devolved to Sub-Saharan levels, and the political system provides few outlets for popular grievances to be aired. However, China is unlikely to face a popular uprising for six reasons, discussed in more depth in our latest China Monthly.

RGE’s Wednesday Note – Reevaluating ‘Chindia’: The Story of the Elephant and the Dragon

The emerging market powerhouse known as “Chindia” is becoming a focal point of global attention as China and India show themselves to be growth dynamos of the coming Asian Century. But examining these countries’ intrinsic differences, as we do in “‘Chindia’: Putting the Emerging Market Giants Into Perspective,” is more illustrative than listing their similarities—and the two countries are likely to be on a divergent path over the next five years in the areas of growth, economic policy and politics.

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